Track record

Every model prediction is saved before kickoff with its price, projection, probability and model version, then graded from official stats. Nothing is edited after the fact. Current model v2.0.0.

Live verified recordEstablished sample

Last graded Oct 5, 5:57 AM

RECORD

275–233

508 graded

54.1%

+22.46

1 unit per prediction

+4.4%

+0.6%

STREAK

59 pending

Rated Value or better only: 56–47 · +5.71uDeveloping sample

Sep 29Cumulative units, 1 unit per predictionOct 5

Every prediction is timestamped and saved before kickoff with its price, projection and model version, then graded from official stats. Nothing is edited or removed after.

500 verified predictions reached. Next milestone: 1,000 graded (492 to go).

Past performance is no promise of future results. Model probabilities are estimates, not certainties. Sports betting involves financial risk.

By prop typebest and worst, nothing hidden

Receiving yardsDeveloping sample

106–86

55.2%+4.8% ROICLV -0.0%

ReceptionsDeveloping sample

104–87

54.5%+7.9% ROICLV +1.1%

Rushing yardsEarly results

53–42

55.8%+5.7% ROICLV +0.1%

Passing yardsEarly results

12–18

40.0%-24.1% ROICLV -0.0%

Small sample sizes. Prop types with under 100 graded predictions haven't shown long-term performance yet; a few results either way swing these numbers a lot.

Closing line value282 with a comparable close

compares the price saved before the game with the market's final price at the same line. Beating the close consistently is one of the best signs a model finds value before the market does, and it shows up long before win rates settle.

Avg CLV

+0.6%

Beat the close

42%

of graded predictions

NFL CLV

+0.6%

282 graded

Breakdownmarket / prop type

Group	Graded	W–L–P	Win rate	Units	ROI	Avg edge	Avg proj. error	Avg CLV
Passing yards	30	12–18	40.0%	-7.24u	-24.1%	-0.3%	79.9	-0.0%
Receiving yards	192	106–86	55.2%	+9.23u	+4.8%	+0.1%	23.4	-0.0%
Receptions	191	104–87	54.5%	+15.04u	+7.9%	+0.5%	1.7	+1.1%
Rushing yards	95	53–42	55.8%	+5.43u	+5.7%	+0.3%	17.9	+0.1%

Calibration

When the model says 60%, it should win about 60% of the time. Actual below predicted means overconfident; above means underconfident. A bucket needs 50+ results before its gap means much.

Predicted	Graded	Avg predicted	Actual	Gap
Under 50%	90	44.7%	52.2%	+7.5%
50–54%	324	52.7%	53.1%	+0.4%
55–59%	64	56.7%	57.8%	+1.1%
60–64%	20	62.7%	75.0%	+12.3%
65–69%	9	66.5%	33.3%	-33.1%
70%+	1	70.3%	100.0%	+29.7%

Bar: actual win rate. Green tick: average predicted probability.

Backtest a selection rule

Replays only predictions saved before their games started, so a rule can't use information that didn't exist at bet time. Uses the sport, market, model and dates above.

Every prediction401–450 of 596

Gunnar Helm Under 2.5 receptionsWin · 1
+125 DraftKingsProj 2.745.0%EV +1.3%Lean
Titans@Ravens · saved Sep 30, 5:27 PM · v2.0.0
Wan'Dale Robinson Over 3.5 receptionsLoss · 3
-125 FanDuelProj 5.157.6%EV +3.6%Value
Titans@Ravens · saved Sep 30, 5:27 PM · v2.0.0
Mark Andrews Under 4.5 receptionsLoss · 5
-160 FanDuelProj 3.462.9%EV +2.3%Lean
Titans@Ravens · saved Sep 30, 5:27 PM · v2.0.0
Carnell Tate Over 4.5 receptionsWin · 9
+111 DraftKingsProj 4.546.4%EV -2.1%Pass
Titans@Ravens · saved Sep 30, 5:27 PM · v2.0.0
Rashod Bateman Under 34.5 receiving yardsLoss · 46
-114 DraftKingsProj 27.255.0%EV +3.3%Value
Titans@Ravens · saved Sep 30, 5:27 PM · v2.0.0
DeVonta Smith Under 68.5 receiving yardsVoid
-114 DraftKingsProj 68.653.3%EV +0.0%Pass
Rams@Eagles · saved Sep 30, 2:58 PM · v2.0.0
Jordan Love Under 4.5 rushing yardsWin · -8
-111 DraftKingsProj 754.0%EV +2.7%Lean
Packers@Buccaneers · saved Sep 30, 2:58 PM · v2.0.0
Kaleb Johnson Under 30.5 rushing yardsLoss · 42
-114 DraftKingsProj 10.655.0%EV +3.3%Value
Packers@Buccaneers · saved Sep 30, 2:58 PM · v2.0.0
Jalon Daniels Under 35.5 rushing yardsLoss · 55
-111 DraftKingsProj 10.651.7%EV -1.7%Pass
Packers@Buccaneers · saved Sep 30, 2:58 PM · v2.0.0
Bucky Irving Under 60.5 rushing yardsLoss · 61
-113 DraftKingsProj 57.654.2%EV +2.1%Lean
Packers@Buccaneers · saved Sep 30, 2:58 PM · v2.0.0
Bucky Irving Over 2.5 receptionsLoss · 0
-107 DraftKingsProj 3.554.2%EV +4.8%Value
Packers@Buccaneers · saved Sep 30, 2:58 PM · v2.0.0
Chris Godwin Over 2.5 receptionsWin · 6
-126 DraftKingsProj 3.357.0%EV +2.3%Lean
Packers@Buccaneers · saved Sep 30, 2:58 PM · v2.0.0
Cade Otton Over 2.5 receptionsWin · 4
-153 DraftKingsProj 3.863.2%EV +4.5%Value
Packers@Buccaneers · saved Sep 30, 2:58 PM · v2.0.0
Emeka Egbuka Over 3.5 receptionsLoss · 2
+116 DraftKingsProj 3.746.9%EV +1.4%Lean
Packers@Buccaneers · saved Sep 30, 2:58 PM · v2.0.0
Tucker Kraft Under 3.5 receptionsLoss · 6
+116 DraftKingsProj 3.646.9%EV +1.4%Lean
Packers@Buccaneers · saved Sep 30, 2:58 PM · v2.0.0
Matthew Golden Under 4.5 receptionsWin · 3
-121 DraftKingsProj 3.856.3%EV +2.9%Lean
Packers@Buccaneers · saved Sep 30, 2:58 PM · v2.0.0
Christian Watson Under 4.5 receptionsWin · 3
+116 DraftKingsProj 4.746.3%EV -0.1%Pass
Packers@Buccaneers · saved Sep 30, 2:58 PM · v2.0.0
Cade Otton Over 25.5 receiving yardsWin · 37
-112 DraftKingsProj 38.354.8%EV +3.7%Lean
Packers@Buccaneers · saved Sep 30, 2:58 PM · v2.0.0
Tucker Kraft Over 39.5 receiving yardsWin · 42
-110 DraftKingsProj 5050.1%EV -4.3%Pass
Packers@Buccaneers · saved Sep 30, 2:58 PM · v2.0.0
Matthew Golden Under 57.5 receiving yardsWin · 21
-110 DraftKingsProj 57.853.1%EV +1.5%Lean
Packers@Buccaneers · saved Sep 30, 2:58 PM · v2.0.0
Jordan Love Over 246.5 passing yardsLoss · 197
-113 DraftKingsProj 258.650.5%EV -4.8%Pass
Packers@Buccaneers · saved Sep 30, 2:58 PM · v2.0.0
Dohnte Meyers Under 2.5 receptionsLoss · 7
-130 FanDuelProj 1.458.3%EV +3.1%Value
Jaguars@Bengals · saved Sep 30, 2:58 PM · v2.0.0
Romeo Doubs Under 40.5 receiving yardsLoss · 58
-113 DraftKingsProj 48.250.6%EV -4.7%Pass
Patriots@Bills · saved Sep 30, 2:58 PM · v2.0.0
Tyjae Spears Under 15.5 rushing yardsWin · 7
-114 FanDuelProj 19.451.6%EV -3.1%Pass
Titans@Ravens · saved Sep 30, 2:58 PM · v2.0.0
Tony Pollard Over 47.5 rushing yardsWin · 48
-111 DraftKingsProj 60.753.4%EV +1.6%Lean
Titans@Ravens · saved Sep 30, 2:58 PM · v2.0.0
Rashod Bateman Under 2.5 receptionsWin · 2
+121 DraftKingsProj 2.147.8%EV +5.6%Value
Titans@Ravens · saved Sep 30, 2:58 PM · v2.0.0
Zay Flowers Under 5.5 receptionsLoss · 8
-150 DraftKingsProj 4.959.1%EV -1.5%Pass
Titans@Ravens · saved Sep 30, 2:58 PM · v2.0.0
Derrick Henry Under 7.5 receiving yardsWin · 6
-114 FanDuelProj 9.852.9%EV -0.7%Pass
Titans@Ravens · saved Sep 30, 2:58 PM · v2.0.0
Makai Lemon Under 26.5 receiving yardsLoss · 27
-110 DraftKingsProj 13.953.4%EV +1.9%Lean
Rams@Eagles · saved Sep 30, 5:29 AM · v2.0.0
Chase Brown Under 64.5 rushing yardsWin · 10
-105 theScore BetProj 64.451.8%EV +1.1%Lean
Jaguars@Bengals · saved Sep 30, 5:29 AM · v2.0.0
Blake Corum Under 41.5 rushing yardsWin · 14
-114 FanDuelProj 46.450.8%EV -4.7%Pass
Rams@Eagles · saved Sep 30, 4:01 AM · v2.0.0
Dalton Schultz Over 44.5 receiving yardsLoss · 9
-113 DraftKingsProj 5552.7%EV -0.7%Pass
Cowboys@Texans · saved Sep 30, 3:47 AM · v2.0.0
Parker Washington Under 72.5 receiving yardsWin · 7
-113 DraftKingsProj 6754.9%EV +3.5%Lean
Jaguars@Bengals · saved Sep 30, 3:47 AM · v2.0.0
Ryan Flournoy Under 33.5 receiving yardsLoss · 37
-111 DraftKingsProj 33.654.7%EV +4.0%Lean
Cowboys@Texans · saved Sep 30, 3:08 AM · v2.0.0
Dak Prescott Over 9.5 rushing yardsLoss · 7
-114 FanDuelProj 12.850.6%EV -4.9%Pass
Cowboys@Texans · saved Sep 30, 1:41 AM · v2.0.0
David Montgomery Over 10.5 receiving yardsWin · 19
-114 FanDuelProj 1351.2%EV -3.9%Pass
Cowboys@Texans · saved Sep 30, 1:41 AM · v2.0.0
C.J. Stroud Under 244.5 passing yardsLoss · 347
-110 theScore BetProj 242.651.6%EV -1.5%Pass
Cowboys@Texans · saved Sep 30, 1:41 AM · v2.0.0
C.J. Stroud Under 11.5 rushing yardsLoss · 12
-110 DraftKingsProj 13.651.3%EV -2.0%Pass
Cowboys@Texans · saved Sep 30, 1:41 AM · v2.0.0
David Montgomery Under 52.5 rushing yardsWin · 24
-109 DraftKingsProj 42.655.0%EV +5.4%Lean
Cowboys@Texans · saved Sep 30, 1:41 AM · v2.0.0
David Montgomery Under 1.5 receptionsWin · 0
+106 DraftKingsProj 1.746.8%EV -3.6%Pass
Cowboys@Texans · saved Sep 30, 1:41 AM · v2.0.0
Woody Marks Under 1.5 receptionsWin · 0
+115 theScore BetProj 1.845.5%EV -2.2%Pass
Cowboys@Texans · saved Sep 30, 1:41 AM · v2.0.0
Javonte Williams Under 2.5 receptionsLoss · 5
+106 FanDuelProj 2.550.1%EV +3.2%Value
Cowboys@Texans · saved Sep 30, 1:41 AM · v2.0.0
Jake Ferguson Under 3.5 receptionsWin · 3
-127 DraftKingsProj 3.754.2%EV -3.1%Pass
Cowboys@Texans · saved Sep 30, 1:41 AM · v2.0.0
Ryan Flournoy Under 3.5 receptionsLoss · 4
-109 DraftKingsProj 3.254.5%EV +4.4%Lean
Cowboys@Texans · saved Sep 30, 1:41 AM · v2.0.0
George Pickens Over 4.5 receptionsLoss · 2
-130 DraftKingsProj 5.457.5%EV +1.8%Lean
Cowboys@Texans · saved Sep 30, 1:41 AM · v2.0.0
Dalton Schultz Over 4.5 receptionsLoss · 2
-141 DraftKingsProj 5.558.2%EV -0.6%Pass
Cowboys@Texans · saved Sep 30, 1:41 AM · v2.0.0
Nico Collins Under 5.5 receptionsLoss · 7
-117 DraftKingsProj 4.855.8%EV +3.6%Value
Cowboys@Texans · saved Sep 30, 1:41 AM · v2.0.0
CeeDee Lamb Under 5.5 receptionsLoss · 17
+105 DraftKingsProj 5.946.4%EV -4.8%Pass
Cowboys@Texans · saved Sep 30, 1:41 AM · v2.0.0
Woody Marks Under 8.5 receiving yardsWin · 0
-108 DraftKingsProj 11.952.7%EV +1.5%Lean
Cowboys@Texans · saved Sep 30, 1:41 AM · v2.0.0
Javonte Williams Under 13.5 receiving yardsLoss · 21
-110 theScore BetProj 11.454.5%EV +4.1%Value
Cowboys@Texans · saved Sep 30, 1:41 AM · v2.0.0

Pick	Odds	Proj	Prob		Rating		Result
Gunnar Helm Under 2.5 receptions Titans@Ravens · 10/4/2026 · saved Sep 30, 5:27 PM · model v2.0.0	+125 DraftKings	2.7	45.0%	+1.3%	Lean high confidence	+109	Win · 1
Wan'Dale Robinson Over 3.5 receptions Titans@Ravens · 10/4/2026 · saved Sep 30, 5:27 PM · model v2.0.0	-125 FanDuel	5.1	57.6%	+3.6%	Value high confidence	-172	Loss · 3
Mark Andrews Under 4.5 receptions Titans@Ravens · 10/4/2026 · saved Sep 30, 5:27 PM · model v2.0.0	-160 FanDuel	3.4	62.9%	+2.3%	Lean high confidence	+124	Loss · 5
Carnell Tate Over 4.5 receptions Titans@Ravens · 10/4/2026 · saved Sep 30, 5:27 PM · model v2.0.0	+111 DraftKings	4.5	46.4%	-2.1%	Pass medium confidence	+106	Win · 9
Rashod Bateman Under 34.5 receiving yards Titans@Ravens · 10/4/2026 · saved Sep 30, 5:27 PM · model v2.0.0	-114 DraftKings	27.2	55.0%	+3.3%	Value high confidence	-110	Loss · 46
DeVonta Smith Under 68.5 receiving yards Rams@Eagles · 10/4/2026 · saved Sep 30, 2:58 PM · model v2.0.0	-114 DraftKings	68.6	53.3%	+0.0%	Pass high confidence	-110	Void
Jordan Love Under 4.5 rushing yards Packers@Buccaneers · 10/4/2026 · saved Sep 30, 2:58 PM · model v2.0.0	-111 DraftKings	7	54.0%	+2.7%	Lean high confidence	-118	Win · -8
Kaleb Johnson Under 30.5 rushing yards Packers@Buccaneers · 10/4/2026 · saved Sep 30, 2:58 PM · model v2.0.0	-114 DraftKings	10.6	55.0%	+3.3%	Value high confidence	-115	Loss · 42
Jalon Daniels Under 35.5 rushing yards Packers@Buccaneers · 10/4/2026 · saved Sep 30, 2:58 PM · model v2.0.0	-111 DraftKings	10.6	51.7%	-1.7%	Pass low confidence	-112	Loss · 55
Bucky Irving Under 60.5 rushing yards Packers@Buccaneers · 10/4/2026 · saved Sep 30, 2:58 PM · model v2.0.0	-113 DraftKings	57.6	54.2%	+2.1%	Lean high confidence	-112	Loss · 61
Bucky Irving Over 2.5 receptions Packers@Buccaneers · 10/4/2026 · saved Sep 30, 2:58 PM · model v2.0.0	-107 DraftKings	3.5	54.2%	+4.8%	Value high confidence	-135	Loss · 0
Chris Godwin Over 2.5 receptions Packers@Buccaneers · 10/4/2026 · saved Sep 30, 2:58 PM · model v2.0.0	-126 DraftKings	3.3	57.0%	+2.3%	Lean high confidence	-140	Win · 6
Cade Otton Over 2.5 receptions Packers@Buccaneers · 10/4/2026 · saved Sep 30, 2:58 PM · model v2.0.0	-153 DraftKings	3.8	63.2%	+4.5%	Value high confidence	-162	Win · 4
Emeka Egbuka Over 3.5 receptions Packers@Buccaneers · 10/4/2026 · saved Sep 30, 2:58 PM · model v2.0.0	+116 DraftKings	3.7	46.9%	+1.4%	Lean high confidence	+103	Loss · 2
Tucker Kraft Under 3.5 receptions Packers@Buccaneers · 10/4/2026 · saved Sep 30, 2:58 PM · model v2.0.0	+116 DraftKings	3.6	46.9%	+1.4%	Lean high confidence	+120	Loss · 6
Matthew Golden Under 4.5 receptions Packers@Buccaneers · 10/4/2026 · saved Sep 30, 2:58 PM · model v2.0.0	-121 DraftKings	3.8	56.3%	+2.9%	Lean high confidence	-102	Win · 3
Christian Watson Under 4.5 receptions Packers@Buccaneers · 10/4/2026 · saved Sep 30, 2:58 PM · model v2.0.0	+116 DraftKings	4.7	46.3%	-0.1%	Pass high confidence	+113	Win · 3
Cade Otton Over 25.5 receiving yards Packers@Buccaneers · 10/4/2026 · saved Sep 30, 2:58 PM · model v2.0.0	-112 DraftKings	38.3	54.8%	+3.7%	Lean high confidence	-112	Win · 37
Tucker Kraft Over 39.5 receiving yards Packers@Buccaneers · 10/4/2026 · saved Sep 30, 2:58 PM · model v2.0.0	-110 DraftKings	50	50.1%	-4.3%	Pass high confidence	-111	Win · 42
Matthew Golden Under 57.5 receiving yards Packers@Buccaneers · 10/4/2026 · saved Sep 30, 2:58 PM · model v2.0.0	-110 DraftKings	57.8	53.1%	+1.5%	Lean high confidence	-114	Win · 21
Jordan Love Over 246.5 passing yards Packers@Buccaneers · 10/4/2026 · saved Sep 30, 2:58 PM · model v2.0.0	-113 DraftKings	258.6	50.5%	-4.8%	Pass high confidence	-112	Loss · 197
Dohnte Meyers Under 2.5 receptions Jaguars@Bengals · 10/4/2026 · saved Sep 30, 2:58 PM · model v2.0.0	-130 FanDuel	1.4	58.3%	+3.1%	Value medium confidence	-194	Loss · 7
Romeo Doubs Under 40.5 receiving yards Patriots@Bills · 10/4/2026 · saved Sep 30, 2:58 PM · model v2.0.0	-113 DraftKings	48.2	50.6%	-4.7%	Pass high confidence	-109	Loss · 58
Tyjae Spears Under 15.5 rushing yards Titans@Ravens · 10/4/2026 · saved Sep 30, 2:58 PM · model v2.0.0	-114 FanDuel	19.4	51.6%	-3.1%	Pass high confidence	-113	Win · 7
Tony Pollard Over 47.5 rushing yards Titans@Ravens · 10/4/2026 · saved Sep 30, 2:58 PM · model v2.0.0	-111 DraftKings	60.7	53.4%	+1.6%	Lean high confidence	-112	Win · 48
Rashod Bateman Under 2.5 receptions Titans@Ravens · 10/4/2026 · saved Sep 30, 2:58 PM · model v2.0.0	+121 DraftKings	2.1	47.8%	+5.6%	Value high confidence	-170	Win · 2
Zay Flowers Under 5.5 receptions Titans@Ravens · 10/4/2026 · saved Sep 30, 2:58 PM · model v2.0.0	-150 DraftKings	4.9	59.1%	-1.5%	Pass medium confidence	-154	Loss · 8
Derrick Henry Under 7.5 receiving yards Titans@Ravens · 10/4/2026 · saved Sep 30, 2:58 PM · model v2.0.0	-114 FanDuel	9.8	52.9%	-0.7%	Pass high confidence	-113	Win · 6
Makai Lemon Under 26.5 receiving yards Rams@Eagles · 10/4/2026 · saved Sep 30, 5:29 AM · model v2.0.0	-110 DraftKings	13.9	53.4%	+1.9%	Lean medium confidence	-111	Loss · 27
Chase Brown Under 64.5 rushing yards Jaguars@Bengals · 10/4/2026 · saved Sep 30, 5:29 AM · model v2.0.0	-105 theScore Bet	64.4	51.8%	+1.1%	Lean high confidence	-120	Win · 10
Blake Corum Under 41.5 rushing yards Rams@Eagles · 10/4/2026 · saved Sep 30, 4:01 AM · model v2.0.0	-114 FanDuel	46.4	50.8%	-4.7%	Pass high confidence	-113	Win · 14
Dalton Schultz Over 44.5 receiving yards Cowboys@Texans · 10/4/2026 · saved Sep 30, 3:47 AM · model v2.0.0	-113 DraftKings	55	52.7%	-0.7%	Pass high confidence	-109	Loss · 9
Parker Washington Under 72.5 receiving yards Jaguars@Bengals · 10/4/2026 · saved Sep 30, 3:47 AM · model v2.0.0	-113 DraftKings	67	54.9%	+3.5%	Lean high confidence	-110	Win · 7
Ryan Flournoy Under 33.5 receiving yards Cowboys@Texans · 10/4/2026 · saved Sep 30, 3:08 AM · model v2.0.0	-111 DraftKings	33.6	54.7%	+4.0%	Lean high confidence	-112	Loss · 37
Dak Prescott Over 9.5 rushing yards Cowboys@Texans · 10/4/2026 · saved Sep 30, 1:41 AM · model v2.0.0	-114 FanDuel	12.8	50.6%	-4.9%	Pass high confidence	-113	Loss · 7
David Montgomery Over 10.5 receiving yards Cowboys@Texans · 10/4/2026 · saved Sep 30, 1:41 AM · model v2.0.0	-114 FanDuel	13	51.2%	-3.9%	Pass high confidence	-113	Win · 19
C.J. Stroud Under 244.5 passing yards Cowboys@Texans · 10/4/2026 · saved Sep 30, 1:41 AM · model v2.0.0	-110 theScore Bet	242.6	51.6%	-1.5%	Pass high confidence	-120	Loss · 347
C.J. Stroud Under 11.5 rushing yards Cowboys@Texans · 10/4/2026 · saved Sep 30, 1:41 AM · model v2.0.0	-110 DraftKings	13.6	51.3%	-2.0%	Pass high confidence	-113	Loss · 12
David Montgomery Under 52.5 rushing yards Cowboys@Texans · 10/4/2026 · saved Sep 30, 1:41 AM · model v2.0.0	-109 DraftKings	42.6	55.0%	+5.4%	Lean high confidence	-113	Win · 24
David Montgomery Under 1.5 receptions Cowboys@Texans · 10/4/2026 · saved Sep 30, 1:41 AM · model v2.0.0	+106 DraftKings	1.7	46.8%	-3.6%	Pass high confidence	-103	Win · 0
Woody Marks Under 1.5 receptions Cowboys@Texans · 10/4/2026 · saved Sep 30, 1:41 AM · model v2.0.0	+115 theScore Bet	1.8	45.5%	-2.2%	Pass high confidence	+100	Win · 0
Javonte Williams Under 2.5 receptions Cowboys@Texans · 10/4/2026 · saved Sep 30, 1:41 AM · model v2.0.0	+106 FanDuel	2.5	50.1%	+3.2%	Value high confidence	-102	Loss · 5
Jake Ferguson Under 3.5 receptions Cowboys@Texans · 10/4/2026 · saved Sep 30, 1:41 AM · model v2.0.0	-127 DraftKings	3.7	54.2%	-3.1%	Pass high confidence	-118	Win · 3
Ryan Flournoy Under 3.5 receptions Cowboys@Texans · 10/4/2026 · saved Sep 30, 1:41 AM · model v2.0.0	-109 DraftKings	3.2	54.5%	+4.4%	Lean high confidence	-119	Loss · 4
George Pickens Over 4.5 receptions Cowboys@Texans · 10/4/2026 · saved Sep 30, 1:41 AM · model v2.0.0	-130 DraftKings	5.4	57.5%	+1.8%	Lean high confidence	-144	Loss · 2
Dalton Schultz Over 4.5 receptions Cowboys@Texans · 10/4/2026 · saved Sep 30, 1:41 AM · model v2.0.0	-141 DraftKings	5.5	58.2%	-0.6%	Pass high confidence	-109	Loss · 2
Nico Collins Under 5.5 receptions Cowboys@Texans · 10/4/2026 · saved Sep 30, 1:41 AM · model v2.0.0	-117 DraftKings	4.8	55.8%	+3.6%	Value medium confidence	-116	Loss · 7
CeeDee Lamb Under 5.5 receptions Cowboys@Texans · 10/4/2026 · saved Sep 30, 1:41 AM · model v2.0.0	+105 DraftKings	5.9	46.4%	-4.8%	Pass high confidence	+109	Loss · 17
Woody Marks Under 8.5 receiving yards Cowboys@Texans · 10/4/2026 · saved Sep 30, 1:41 AM · model v2.0.0	-108 DraftKings	11.9	52.7%	+1.5%	Lean high confidence	-112	Win · 0
Javonte Williams Under 13.5 receiving yards Cowboys@Texans · 10/4/2026 · saved Sep 30, 1:41 AM · model v2.0.0	-110 theScore Bet	11.4	54.5%	+4.1%	Value high confidence	-110	Loss · 21

Past performance is no promise of future results. Model probabilities are estimates, not certainties. Sports betting involves financial risk.