Track record

Every model prediction is saved before kickoff with its price, projection, probability and model version, then graded from official stats. Nothing is edited after the fact. Current model v2.0.0.

Live verified recordEstablished sample

Last graded Oct 5, 5:57 AM

RECORD

275–233

508 graded

54.1%

+22.46

1 unit per prediction

+4.4%

+0.6%

STREAK

59 pending

Rated Value or better only: 56–47 · +5.71uDeveloping sample

Sep 29Cumulative units, 1 unit per predictionOct 5

Every prediction is timestamped and saved before kickoff with its price, projection and model version, then graded from official stats. Nothing is edited or removed after.

500 verified predictions reached. Next milestone: 1,000 graded (492 to go).

Past performance is no promise of future results. Model probabilities are estimates, not certainties. Sports betting involves financial risk.

By prop typebest and worst, nothing hidden

Receiving yardsDeveloping sample

106–86

55.2%+4.8% ROICLV -0.0%

ReceptionsDeveloping sample

104–87

54.5%+7.9% ROICLV +1.1%

Rushing yardsEarly results

53–42

55.8%+5.7% ROICLV +0.1%

Passing yardsEarly results

12–18

40.0%-24.1% ROICLV -0.0%

Small sample sizes. Prop types with under 100 graded predictions haven't shown long-term performance yet; a few results either way swing these numbers a lot.

Closing line value282 with a comparable close

compares the price saved before the game with the market's final price at the same line. Beating the close consistently is one of the best signs a model finds value before the market does, and it shows up long before win rates settle.

Avg CLV

+0.6%

Beat the close

42%

of graded predictions

NFL CLV

+0.6%

282 graded

Breakdownmarket / prop type

Group	Graded	W–L–P	Win rate	Units	ROI	Avg edge	Avg proj. error	Avg CLV
Passing yards	30	12–18	40.0%	-7.24u	-24.1%	-0.3%	79.9	-0.0%
Receiving yards	192	106–86	55.2%	+9.23u	+4.8%	+0.1%	23.4	-0.0%
Receptions	191	104–87	54.5%	+15.04u	+7.9%	+0.5%	1.7	+1.1%
Rushing yards	95	53–42	55.8%	+5.43u	+5.7%	+0.3%	17.9	+0.1%

Calibration

When the model says 60%, it should win about 60% of the time. Actual below predicted means overconfident; above means underconfident. A bucket needs 50+ results before its gap means much.

Predicted	Graded	Avg predicted	Actual	Gap
Under 50%	90	44.7%	52.2%	+7.5%
50–54%	324	52.7%	53.1%	+0.4%
55–59%	64	56.7%	57.8%	+1.1%
60–64%	20	62.7%	75.0%	+12.3%
65–69%	9	66.5%	33.3%	-33.1%
70%+	1	70.3%	100.0%	+29.7%

Bar: actual win rate. Green tick: average predicted probability.

Backtest a selection rule

Replays only predictions saved before their games started, so a rule can't use information that didn't exist at bet time. Uses the sport, market, model and dates above.

Every prediction451–500 of 596

Jake Ferguson Under 24.5 receiving yardsWin · 11
-114 DraftKingsProj 28.252.9%EV -0.7%Pass
Cowboys@Texans · saved Sep 30, 1:41 AM · v2.0.0
Nico Collins Under 74.5 receiving yardsLoss · 118
-110 theScore BetProj 70.653.1%EV +1.3%Lean
Cowboys@Texans · saved Sep 30, 1:41 AM · v2.0.0
CeeDee Lamb Over 76.5 receiving yardsWin · 189
-110 DraftKingsProj 87.251.4%EV -1.8%Pass
Cowboys@Texans · saved Sep 30, 1:41 AM · v2.0.0
Bhayshul Tuten Under 54.5 rushing yardsLoss · 73
-113 DraftKingsProj 44.255.4%EV +4.4%Value
Jaguars@Bengals · saved Sep 30, 1:41 AM · v2.0.0
Jakobi Meyers Under 3.5 receptionsWin · 3
+115 theScore BetProj 3.746.1%EV -0.9%Pass
Jaguars@Bengals · saved Sep 30, 1:41 AM · v2.0.0
Tee Higgins Under 4.5 receptionsLoss · 11
-135 DraftKingsProj 4.454.7%EV -4.8%Pass
Jaguars@Bengals · saved Sep 30, 1:41 AM · v2.0.0
Parker Washington Under 5.5 receptionsWin · 1
-132 DraftKingsProj 4.558.9%EV +3.5%Value
Jaguars@Bengals · saved Sep 30, 1:41 AM · v2.0.0
Ja'Marr Chase Under 6.5 receptionsWin · 3
+100 FanDuelProj 6.949.1%EV -1.9%Pass
Jaguars@Bengals · saved Sep 30, 1:41 AM · v2.0.0
Jakobi Meyers Under 40.5 receiving yardsWin · 33
-111 DraftKingsProj 42.651.8%EV -1.6%Pass
Jaguars@Bengals · saved Sep 30, 1:41 AM · v2.0.0
Tee Higgins Over 61.5 receiving yardsWin · 157
-114 DraftKingsProj 67.750.9%EV -4.5%Pass
Jaguars@Bengals · saved Sep 30, 1:41 AM · v2.0.0
Ja'Marr Chase Under 78.5 receiving yardsWin · 27
-112 DraftKingsProj 77.553.6%EV +1.5%Lean
Jaguars@Bengals · saved Sep 30, 1:41 AM · v2.0.0
TreVeyon Henderson Under 42.5 rushing yardsWin · 42
-110 theScore BetProj 48.151.5%EV -1.7%Pass
Patriots@Bills · saved Sep 30, 1:41 AM · v2.0.0
Drake Maye Under 26.5 rushing yardsLoss · 54
-110 theScore BetProj 28.551.8%EV -1.1%Pass
Patriots@Bills · saved Sep 30, 1:41 AM · v2.0.0
Rhamondre Stevenson Over 30.5 rushing yardsWin · 47
-114 FanDuelProj 44.355.3%EV +3.8%Lean
Patriots@Bills · saved Sep 30, 1:41 AM · v2.0.0
Ty Johnson Over 13.5 receiving yardsLoss · 9
-114 FanDuelProj 23.153.6%EV +0.6%Pass
Patriots@Bills · saved Sep 30, 1:41 AM · v2.0.0
Josh Allen Over 31.5 rushing yardsLoss · 4
-110 DraftKingsProj 40.154.4%EV +3.8%Value
Patriots@Bills · saved Sep 30, 1:41 AM · v2.0.0
James Cook Over 88.5 rushing yardsLoss · 75
-110 theScore BetProj 10151.4%EV -1.8%Pass
Patriots@Bills · saved Sep 30, 1:41 AM · v2.0.0
TreVeyon Henderson Under 1.5 receptionsWin · 0
-164 DraftKingsProj 1.262.2%EV +0.2%Pass
Patriots@Bills · saved Sep 30, 1:41 AM · v2.0.0
James Cook Over 1.5 receptionsWin · 2
+106 FanDuelProj 1.747.1%EV -3.0%Pass
Patriots@Bills · saved Sep 30, 1:41 AM · v2.0.0
Keon Coleman Over 1.5 receptionsWin · 6
+100 theScore BetProj 2.452.0%EV +4.1%Value
Patriots@Bills · saved Sep 30, 1:41 AM · v2.0.0
Ty Johnson Over 1.5 receptionsWin · 2
-141 DraftKingsProj 2.157.9%EV -1.1%Pass
Patriots@Bills · saved Sep 30, 1:41 AM · v2.0.0
DeMario Douglas Under 2.5 receptionsWin · 2
+105 theScore BetProj 2.450.9%EV +4.3%Lean
Patriots@Bills · saved Sep 30, 1:41 AM · v2.0.0
Rhamondre Stevenson Over 2.5 receptionsWin · 3
-128 DraftKingsProj 2.853.7%EV -4.3%Pass
Patriots@Bills · saved Sep 30, 1:41 AM · v2.0.0
Romeo Doubs Under 3.5 receptionsLoss · 6
-140 theScore BetProj 3.159.2%EV +1.6%Lean
Patriots@Bills · saved Sep 30, 1:41 AM · v2.0.0
Hunter Henry Under 3.5 receptionsLoss · 5
-122 FanDuelProj 2.757.1%EV +3.9%Value
Patriots@Bills · saved Sep 30, 1:41 AM · v2.0.0
Mack Hollins Under 3.5 receptionsWin · 3
+100 theScore BetProj 3.748.7%EV -2.6%Pass
Patriots@Bills · saved Sep 30, 1:41 AM · v2.0.0
DJ Moore Under 3.5 receptionsWin · 1
+100 theScore BetProj 3.550.2%EV +0.3%Pass
Patriots@Bills · saved Sep 30, 1:41 AM · v2.0.0
Khalil Shakir Under 3.5 receptionsLoss · 7
+115 theScore BetProj 4.244.8%EV -3.7%Pass
Patriots@Bills · saved Sep 30, 1:41 AM · v2.0.0
Dalton Kincaid Under 4.5 receptionsWin · 1
+100 theScore BetProj 453.4%EV +6.8%Value
Patriots@Bills · saved Sep 30, 1:41 AM · v2.0.0
James Cook Over 6.5 receiving yardsWin · 8
-114 FanDuelProj 12.251.4%EV -3.5%Pass
Patriots@Bills · saved Sep 30, 1:41 AM · v2.0.0
TreVeyon Henderson Under 7.5 receiving yardsWin · 0
-114 DraftKingsProj 7.753.8%EV +1.0%Lean
Patriots@Bills · saved Sep 30, 1:41 AM · v2.0.0
Keon Coleman Over 13.5 receiving yardsWin · 116
-110 DraftKingsProj 28.854.1%EV +3.2%Lean
Patriots@Bills · saved Sep 30, 1:41 AM · v2.0.0
Rhamondre Stevenson Over 18.5 receiving yardsWin · 27
-109 DraftKingsProj 26.650.8%EV -2.6%Pass
Patriots@Bills · saved Sep 30, 1:41 AM · v2.0.0
DeMario Douglas Under 27.5 receiving yardsWin · 15
-114 FanDuelProj 31.851.7%EV -3.0%Pass
Patriots@Bills · saved Sep 30, 1:41 AM · v2.0.0
Hunter Henry Under 31.5 receiving yardsLoss · 62
-110 theScore BetProj 31.754.4%EV +3.9%Value
Patriots@Bills · saved Sep 30, 1:41 AM · v2.0.0
Mack Hollins Under 43.5 receiving yardsLoss · 53
-114 DraftKingsProj 48.950.6%EV -5.1%Pass
Patriots@Bills · saved Sep 30, 1:41 AM · v2.0.0
DJ Moore Under 46.5 receiving yardsWin · 11
-114 DraftKingsProj 45.654.5%EV +2.4%Lean
Patriots@Bills · saved Sep 30, 1:41 AM · v2.0.0
Dalton Kincaid Over 53.5 receiving yardsLoss · 7
-112 DraftKingsProj 61.850.4%EV -4.6%Pass
Patriots@Bills · saved Sep 30, 1:41 AM · v2.0.0
Drake Maye Under 229.5 passing yardsLoss · 269
-111 DraftKingsProj 230.851.5%EV -2.2%Pass
Patriots@Bills · saved Sep 30, 1:41 AM · v2.0.0
Jalen Hurts Under 24.5 rushing yardsWin · 18
-110 theScore BetProj 24.553.6%EV +2.4%Lean
Rams@Eagles · saved Sep 30, 1:35 AM · v2.0.0
Davante Adams Under 5.5 receptionsWin · 4
-148 FanDuelProj 4.959.1%EV -1.0%Pass
Rams@Eagles · saved Sep 30, 1:35 AM · v2.0.0
Dontayvion Wicks Under 3.5 receptionsWin · 3
-170 theScore BetProj 2.764.1%EV +1.7%Lean
Rams@Eagles · saved Sep 30, 1:35 AM · v2.0.0
Dontayvion Wicks Under 40.5 receiving yardsWin · 18
-110 theScore BetProj 38.254.3%EV +3.7%Value
Rams@Eagles · saved Sep 30, 1:35 AM · v2.0.0
Davante Adams Under 74.5 receiving yardsWin · 32
-110 theScore BetProj 78.651.2%EV -2.3%Pass
Rams@Eagles · saved Sep 30, 1:35 AM · v2.0.0
Saquon Barkley Under 79.5 rushing yardsWin · 8
-111 DraftKingsProj 65.255.2%EV +4.9%Value
Rams@Eagles · saved Sep 30, 1:35 AM · v2.0.0
Makai Lemon Under 2.5 receptionsLoss · 3
+136 FanDuelProj 2.345.6%EV +7.5%Value
Rams@Eagles · saved Sep 30, 1:35 AM · v2.0.0
DeVonta Smith Under 5.5 receptionsVoid
+120 theScore BetProj 5.548.2%EV +6.1%Value
Rams@Eagles · saved Sep 30, 1:35 AM · v2.0.0
Jacory Croskey-Merritt Under 1.5 receptionsLoss · 2
-172 DraftKingsProj 0.764.7%EV +2.3%Lean
Colts@Commanders · saved Oct 4, 5:32 AM · v2.0.0
Jacory Croskey-Merritt Under 5.5 receiving yardsLoss · 35
-105 DraftKingsProj 3.654.3%EV +6.0%Lean
Colts@Commanders · saved Oct 4, 5:32 AM · v2.0.0
Kaytron Allen Over 13.5 rushing yardsLoss · 1
-113 FanDuelProj 20.151.8%EV -2.4%Pass
Colts@Commanders · saved Oct 3, 8:53 PM · v2.0.0

Pick	Odds	Proj	Prob		Rating		Result
Jake Ferguson Under 24.5 receiving yards Cowboys@Texans · 10/4/2026 · saved Sep 30, 1:41 AM · model v2.0.0	-114 DraftKings	28.2	52.9%	-0.7%	Pass high confidence	-109	Win · 11
Nico Collins Under 74.5 receiving yards Cowboys@Texans · 10/4/2026 · saved Sep 30, 1:41 AM · model v2.0.0	-110 theScore Bet	70.6	53.1%	+1.3%	Lean medium confidence	-120	Loss · 118
CeeDee Lamb Over 76.5 receiving yards Cowboys@Texans · 10/4/2026 · saved Sep 30, 1:41 AM · model v2.0.0	-110 DraftKings	87.2	51.4%	-1.8%	Pass high confidence	-113	Win · 189
Bhayshul Tuten Under 54.5 rushing yards Jaguars@Bengals · 10/4/2026 · saved Sep 30, 1:41 AM · model v2.0.0	-113 DraftKings	44.2	55.4%	+4.4%	Value high confidence	-113	Loss · 73
Jakobi Meyers Under 3.5 receptions Jaguars@Bengals · 10/4/2026 · saved Sep 30, 1:41 AM · model v2.0.0	+115 theScore Bet	3.7	46.1%	-0.9%	Pass high confidence	-115	Win · 3
Tee Higgins Under 4.5 receptions Jaguars@Bengals · 10/4/2026 · saved Sep 30, 1:41 AM · model v2.0.0	-135 DraftKings	4.4	54.7%	-4.8%	Pass high confidence	-108	Loss · 11
Parker Washington Under 5.5 receptions Jaguars@Bengals · 10/4/2026 · saved Sep 30, 1:41 AM · model v2.0.0	-132 DraftKings	4.5	58.9%	+3.5%	Value high confidence	-131	Win · 1
Ja'Marr Chase Under 6.5 receptions Jaguars@Bengals · 10/4/2026 · saved Sep 30, 1:41 AM · model v2.0.0	+100 FanDuel	6.9	49.1%	-1.9%	Pass high confidence	-160	Win · 3
Jakobi Meyers Under 40.5 receiving yards Jaguars@Bengals · 10/4/2026 · saved Sep 30, 1:41 AM · model v2.0.0	-111 DraftKings	42.6	51.8%	-1.6%	Pass high confidence	-112	Win · 33
Tee Higgins Over 61.5 receiving yards Jaguars@Bengals · 10/4/2026 · saved Sep 30, 1:41 AM · model v2.0.0	-114 DraftKings	67.7	50.9%	-4.5%	Pass high confidence	-110	Win · 157
Ja'Marr Chase Under 78.5 receiving yards Jaguars@Bengals · 10/4/2026 · saved Sep 30, 1:41 AM · model v2.0.0	-112 DraftKings	77.5	53.6%	+1.5%	Lean high confidence	-111	Win · 27
TreVeyon Henderson Under 42.5 rushing yards Patriots@Bills · 10/4/2026 · saved Sep 30, 1:41 AM · model v2.0.0	-110 theScore Bet	48.1	51.5%	-1.7%	Pass medium confidence	+100	Win · 42
Drake Maye Under 26.5 rushing yards Patriots@Bills · 10/4/2026 · saved Sep 30, 1:41 AM · model v2.0.0	-110 theScore Bet	28.5	51.8%	-1.1%	Pass high confidence	-110	Loss · 54
Rhamondre Stevenson Over 30.5 rushing yards Patriots@Bills · 10/4/2026 · saved Sep 30, 1:41 AM · model v2.0.0	-114 FanDuel	44.3	55.3%	+3.8%	Lean high confidence	-113	Win · 47
Ty Johnson Over 13.5 receiving yards Patriots@Bills · 10/4/2026 · saved Sep 30, 1:41 AM · model v2.0.0	-114 FanDuel	23.1	53.6%	+0.6%	Pass medium confidence	-113	Loss · 9
Josh Allen Over 31.5 rushing yards Patriots@Bills · 10/4/2026 · saved Sep 30, 1:41 AM · model v2.0.0	-110 DraftKings	40.1	54.4%	+3.8%	Value high confidence	-110	Loss · 4
James Cook Over 88.5 rushing yards Patriots@Bills · 10/4/2026 · saved Sep 30, 1:41 AM · model v2.0.0	-110 theScore Bet	101	51.4%	-1.8%	Pass high confidence	-120	Loss · 75
TreVeyon Henderson Under 1.5 receptions Patriots@Bills · 10/4/2026 · saved Sep 30, 1:41 AM · model v2.0.0	-164 DraftKings	1.2	62.2%	+0.2%	Pass medium confidence	-175	Win · 0
James Cook Over 1.5 receptions Patriots@Bills · 10/4/2026 · saved Sep 30, 1:41 AM · model v2.0.0	+106 FanDuel	1.7	47.1%	-3.0%	Pass high confidence	-108	Win · 2
Keon Coleman Over 1.5 receptions Patriots@Bills · 10/4/2026 · saved Sep 30, 1:41 AM · model v2.0.0	+100 theScore Bet	2.4	52.0%	+4.1%	Value high confidence	+100	Win · 6
Ty Johnson Over 1.5 receptions Patriots@Bills · 10/4/2026 · saved Sep 30, 1:41 AM · model v2.0.0	-141 DraftKings	2.1	57.9%	-1.1%	Pass medium confidence	-121	Win · 2
DeMario Douglas Under 2.5 receptions Patriots@Bills · 10/4/2026 · saved Sep 30, 1:41 AM · model v2.0.0	+105 theScore Bet	2.4	50.9%	+4.3%	Lean high confidence	+115	Win · 2
Rhamondre Stevenson Over 2.5 receptions Patriots@Bills · 10/4/2026 · saved Sep 30, 1:41 AM · model v2.0.0	-128 DraftKings	2.8	53.7%	-4.3%	Pass high confidence	-102	Win · 3
Romeo Doubs Under 3.5 receptions Patriots@Bills · 10/4/2026 · saved Sep 30, 1:41 AM · model v2.0.0	-140 theScore Bet	3.1	59.2%	+1.6%	Lean high confidence	-150	Loss · 6
Hunter Henry Under 3.5 receptions Patriots@Bills · 10/4/2026 · saved Sep 30, 1:41 AM · model v2.0.0	-122 FanDuel	2.7	57.1%	+3.9%	Value high confidence	-148	Loss · 5
Mack Hollins Under 3.5 receptions Patriots@Bills · 10/4/2026 · saved Sep 30, 1:41 AM · model v2.0.0	+100 theScore Bet	3.7	48.7%	-2.6%	Pass high confidence	-105	Win · 3
DJ Moore Under 3.5 receptions Patriots@Bills · 10/4/2026 · saved Sep 30, 1:41 AM · model v2.0.0	+100 theScore Bet	3.5	50.2%	+0.3%	Pass high confidence	+120	Win · 1
Khalil Shakir Under 3.5 receptions Patriots@Bills · 10/4/2026 · saved Sep 30, 1:41 AM · model v2.0.0	+115 theScore Bet	4.2	44.8%	-3.7%	Pass high confidence	+125	Loss · 7
Dalton Kincaid Under 4.5 receptions Patriots@Bills · 10/4/2026 · saved Sep 30, 1:41 AM · model v2.0.0	+100 theScore Bet	4	53.4%	+6.8%	Value high confidence	-150	Win · 1
James Cook Over 6.5 receiving yards Patriots@Bills · 10/4/2026 · saved Sep 30, 1:41 AM · model v2.0.0	-114 FanDuel	12.2	51.4%	-3.5%	Pass high confidence	-113	Win · 8
TreVeyon Henderson Under 7.5 receiving yards Patriots@Bills · 10/4/2026 · saved Sep 30, 1:41 AM · model v2.0.0	-114 DraftKings	7.7	53.8%	+1.0%	Lean medium confidence	-114	Win · 0
Keon Coleman Over 13.5 receiving yards Patriots@Bills · 10/4/2026 · saved Sep 30, 1:41 AM · model v2.0.0	-110 DraftKings	28.8	54.1%	+3.2%	Lean high confidence	-108	Win · 116
Rhamondre Stevenson Over 18.5 receiving yards Patriots@Bills · 10/4/2026 · saved Sep 30, 1:41 AM · model v2.0.0	-109 DraftKings	26.6	50.8%	-2.6%	Pass high confidence	-113	Win · 27
DeMario Douglas Under 27.5 receiving yards Patriots@Bills · 10/4/2026 · saved Sep 30, 1:41 AM · model v2.0.0	-114 FanDuel	31.8	51.7%	-3.0%	Pass high confidence	-113	Win · 15
Hunter Henry Under 31.5 receiving yards Patriots@Bills · 10/4/2026 · saved Sep 30, 1:41 AM · model v2.0.0	-110 theScore Bet	31.7	54.4%	+3.9%	Value high confidence	+100	Loss · 62
Mack Hollins Under 43.5 receiving yards Patriots@Bills · 10/4/2026 · saved Sep 30, 1:41 AM · model v2.0.0	-114 DraftKings	48.9	50.6%	-5.1%	Pass high confidence	-112	Loss · 53
DJ Moore Under 46.5 receiving yards Patriots@Bills · 10/4/2026 · saved Sep 30, 1:41 AM · model v2.0.0	-114 DraftKings	45.6	54.5%	+2.4%	Lean high confidence	-112	Win · 11
Dalton Kincaid Over 53.5 receiving yards Patriots@Bills · 10/4/2026 · saved Sep 30, 1:41 AM · model v2.0.0	-112 DraftKings	61.8	50.4%	-4.6%	Pass high confidence	-114	Loss · 7
Drake Maye Under 229.5 passing yards Patriots@Bills · 10/4/2026 · saved Sep 30, 1:41 AM · model v2.0.0	-111 DraftKings	230.8	51.5%	-2.2%	Pass high confidence	-112	Loss · 269
Jalen Hurts Under 24.5 rushing yards Rams@Eagles · 10/4/2026 · saved Sep 30, 1:35 AM · model v2.0.0	-110 theScore Bet	24.5	53.6%	+2.4%	Lean high confidence	-135	Win · 18
Davante Adams Under 5.5 receptions Rams@Eagles · 10/4/2026 · saved Sep 30, 1:35 AM · model v2.0.0	-148 FanDuel	4.9	59.1%	-1.0%	Pass high confidence	+112	Win · 4
Dontayvion Wicks Under 3.5 receptions Rams@Eagles · 10/4/2026 · saved Sep 30, 1:35 AM · model v2.0.0	-170 theScore Bet	2.7	64.1%	+1.7%	Lean high confidence	-150	Win · 3
Dontayvion Wicks Under 40.5 receiving yards Rams@Eagles · 10/4/2026 · saved Sep 30, 1:35 AM · model v2.0.0	-110 theScore Bet	38.2	54.3%	+3.7%	Value high confidence	-110	Win · 18
Davante Adams Under 74.5 receiving yards Rams@Eagles · 10/4/2026 · saved Sep 30, 1:35 AM · model v2.0.0	-110 theScore Bet	78.6	51.2%	-2.3%	Pass high confidence	-120	Win · 32
Saquon Barkley Under 79.5 rushing yards Rams@Eagles · 10/4/2026 · saved Sep 30, 1:35 AM · model v2.0.0	-111 DraftKings	65.2	55.2%	+4.9%	Value high confidence	-111	Win · 8
Makai Lemon Under 2.5 receptions Rams@Eagles · 10/4/2026 · saved Sep 30, 1:35 AM · model v2.0.0	+136 FanDuel	2.3	45.6%	+7.5%	Value medium confidence	-120	Loss · 3
DeVonta Smith Under 5.5 receptions Rams@Eagles · 10/4/2026 · saved Sep 30, 1:35 AM · model v2.0.0	+120 theScore Bet	5.5	48.2%	+6.1%	Value high confidence	+100	Void
Jacory Croskey-Merritt Under 1.5 receptions Colts@Commanders · 10/4/2026 · saved Oct 4, 5:32 AM · model v2.0.0	-172 DraftKings	0.7	64.7%	+2.3%	Lean high confidence	-172	Loss · 2
Jacory Croskey-Merritt Under 5.5 receiving yards Colts@Commanders · 10/4/2026 · saved Oct 4, 5:32 AM · model v2.0.0	-105 DraftKings	3.6	54.3%	+6.0%	Lean high confidence	-104	Loss · 35
Kaytron Allen Over 13.5 rushing yards Colts@Commanders · 10/4/2026 · saved Oct 3, 8:53 PM · model v2.0.0	-113 FanDuel	20.1	51.8%	-2.4%	Pass low confidence	-113	Loss · 1

Past performance is no promise of future results. Model probabilities are estimates, not certainties. Sports betting involves financial risk.