Track record

Every model prediction is saved before kickoff with its price, projection, probability and model version, then graded from official stats. Nothing is edited after the fact. Current model v2.0.0.

Live verified recordEstablished sample

Last graded Oct 5, 5:57 AM

RECORD

275–233

508 graded

54.1%

+22.46

1 unit per prediction

+4.4%

+0.6%

STREAK

59 pending

Rated Value or better only: 56–47 · +5.71uDeveloping sample

Sep 29Cumulative units, 1 unit per predictionOct 5

Every prediction is timestamped and saved before kickoff with its price, projection and model version, then graded from official stats. Nothing is edited or removed after.

500 verified predictions reached. Next milestone: 1,000 graded (492 to go).

Past performance is no promise of future results. Model probabilities are estimates, not certainties. Sports betting involves financial risk.

By prop typebest and worst, nothing hidden

Receiving yardsDeveloping sample

106–86

55.2%+4.8% ROICLV -0.0%

ReceptionsDeveloping sample

104–87

54.5%+7.9% ROICLV +1.1%

Rushing yardsEarly results

53–42

55.8%+5.7% ROICLV +0.1%

Passing yardsEarly results

12–18

40.0%-24.1% ROICLV -0.0%

Small sample sizes. Prop types with under 100 graded predictions haven't shown long-term performance yet; a few results either way swing these numbers a lot.

Closing line value282 with a comparable close

compares the price saved before the game with the market's final price at the same line. Beating the close consistently is one of the best signs a model finds value before the market does, and it shows up long before win rates settle.

Avg CLV

+0.6%

Beat the close

42%

of graded predictions

NFL CLV

+0.6%

282 graded

Breakdownmarket / prop type

Group	Graded	W–L–P	Win rate	Units	ROI	Avg edge	Avg proj. error	Avg CLV
Passing yards	30	12–18	40.0%	-7.24u	-24.1%	-0.3%	79.9	-0.0%
Receiving yards	192	106–86	55.2%	+9.23u	+4.8%	+0.1%	23.4	-0.0%
Receptions	191	104–87	54.5%	+15.04u	+7.9%	+0.5%	1.7	+1.1%
Rushing yards	95	53–42	55.8%	+5.43u	+5.7%	+0.3%	17.9	+0.1%

Calibration

When the model says 60%, it should win about 60% of the time. Actual below predicted means overconfident; above means underconfident. A bucket needs 50+ results before its gap means much.

Predicted	Graded	Avg predicted	Actual	Gap
Under 50%	90	44.7%	52.2%	+7.5%
50–54%	324	52.7%	53.1%	+0.4%
55–59%	64	56.7%	57.8%	+1.1%
60–64%	20	62.7%	75.0%	+12.3%
65–69%	9	66.5%	33.3%	-33.1%
70%+	1	70.3%	100.0%	+29.7%

Bar: actual win rate. Green tick: average predicted probability.

Backtest a selection rule

Replays only predictions saved before their games started, so a rule can't use information that didn't exist at bet time. Uses the sport, market, model and dates above.

Every prediction501–550 of 596

Treylon Burks Under 1.5 receptionsWin · 1
+112 FanDuelProj 1.149.4%EV +4.6%Value
Colts@Commanders · saved Oct 3, 8:53 PM · v2.0.0
Treylon Burks Under 15.5 receiving yardsLoss · 47
-113 FanDuelProj 12.554.8%EV +3.3%Lean
Colts@Commanders · saved Oct 3, 8:53 PM · v2.0.0
Chig Okonkwo Under 2.5 receptionsWin · 2
+100 NovigProj 2.148.3%EV -3.4%Pass
Colts@Commanders · saved Oct 3, 3:15 AM · v2.0.0
Chig Okonkwo Under 23.5 receiving yardsWin · 5
-114 FanDuelProj 16.851.8%EV -2.8%Pass
Colts@Commanders · saved Oct 3, 3:15 AM · v2.0.0
Seth McGowan Under 5.5 rushing yardsLoss · 31
-106 DraftKingsProj 4.952.9%EV +2.8%Lean
Colts@Commanders · saved Oct 2, 6:46 PM · v2.0.0
Laquon Treadwell Under 1.5 receptionsLoss · 5
-168 DraftKingsProj 0.965.3%EV +4.2%Value
Colts@Commanders · saved Oct 2, 2:29 AM · v2.0.0
Laquon Treadwell Under 13.5 receiving yardsLoss · 42
-109 DraftKingsProj 18.350.7%EV -2.7%Pass
Colts@Commanders · saved Oct 1, 4:24 PM · v2.0.0
Antonio Williams Over 1.5 receptionsWin · 3
-172 FanDuelProj 2.963.1%EV -0.3%Pass
Colts@Commanders · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · v2.0.0
Antonio Williams Over 17.5 receiving yardsWin · 21
-113 DraftKingsProj 33.153.7%EV +1.2%Lean
Colts@Commanders · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · v2.0.0
Terry McLaurin Over 53.5 receiving yardsVoid
-110 DraftKingsProj 57.550.1%EV -4.4%Pass
Colts@Commanders · saved Sep 30, 5:27 PM · v2.0.0
Marcus Mariota Under 27.5 rushing yardsLoss · 35
-110 theScore BetProj 20.853.1%EV +1.4%Lean
Colts@Commanders · saved Sep 30, 1:34 AM · v2.0.0
Jonathan Taylor Under 89.5 rushing yardsLoss · 95
-105 theScore BetProj 89.652.3%EV +2.1%Lean
Colts@Commanders · saved Sep 30, 1:34 AM · v2.0.0
Jonathan Taylor Under 2.5 receptionsWin · 1
+108 DraftKingsProj 2.846.8%EV -2.7%Pass
Colts@Commanders · saved Sep 30, 1:34 AM · v2.0.0
Stefon Diggs Over 4.5 receptionsWin · 5
+126 DraftKingsProj 4.745.4%EV +2.6%Lean
Colts@Commanders · saved Sep 30, 1:34 AM · v2.0.0
Jonathan Taylor Over 19.5 receiving yardsLoss · 2
-109 DraftKingsProj 22.250.0%EV -4.1%Pass
Colts@Commanders · saved Sep 30, 1:34 AM · v2.0.0
Stefon Diggs Under 42.5 receiving yardsWin · 35
-114 DraftKingsProj 52.350.4%EV -5.3%Pass
Colts@Commanders · saved Sep 30, 1:34 AM · v2.0.0
Josh Downs Under 64.5 receiving yardsWin · 16
-114 DraftKingsProj 49.155.3%EV +3.8%Value
Colts@Commanders · saved Sep 30, 1:34 AM · v2.0.0
Marcus Mariota Under 212.5 passing yardsWin · 46
-112 DraftKingsProj 165.753.6%EV +1.5%Lean
Colts@Commanders · saved Sep 30, 1:34 AM · v2.0.0
Daniel Jones Under 11.5 rushing yardsWin · 2
-110 DraftKingsProj 1054.6%EV +4.2%Value
Colts@Commanders · saved Sep 29, 3:28 AM · v2.0.0
Keenan Allen Over 33.5 receiving yardsVoid
-109 DraftKingsProj 39.250.3%EV -3.5%Pass
Colts@Commanders · saved Sep 29, 3:28 AM · v2.0.0
Tyler Warren Under 46.5 receiving yardsWin · 41
-112 DraftKingsProj 43.454.8%EV +3.7%Value
Colts@Commanders · saved Sep 29, 3:28 AM · v2.0.0
Daniel Jones Under 224.5 passing yardsWin · 143
-111 DraftKingsProj 230.350.1%EV -4.8%Pass
Colts@Commanders · saved Sep 29, 3:28 AM · v2.0.0
Jacory Croskey-Merritt Under 54.5 rushing yardsWin · 15
-114 FanDuelProj 52.854.1%EV +1.6%Lean
Colts@Commanders · saved Sep 29, 2:17 AM · v2.0.0
Keenan Allen Over 3.5 receptionsVoid
-106 DraftKingsProj 4.453.3%EV +3.6%Value
Colts@Commanders · saved Sep 29, 2:17 AM · v2.0.0
Terry McLaurin Under 4.5 receptionsVoid
-112 FanDuelProj 3.954.7%EV +3.5%Lean
Colts@Commanders · saved Sep 29, 2:17 AM · v2.0.0
Josh Downs Under 5.5 receptionsWin · 3
-154 DraftKingsProj 4.462.0%EV +2.2%Lean
Colts@Commanders · saved Sep 29, 2:17 AM · v2.0.0
Tyler Warren Under 5.5 receptionsWin · 5
-117 DraftKingsProj 555.5%EV +3.0%Lean
Colts@Commanders · saved Sep 29, 2:17 AM · v2.0.0
Blake Whiteheart Over 3.5 receiving yardsLoss · 0
+114 FanDuelProj 5.345.3%EV -3.0%Pass
Steelers@Browns · saved Oct 1, 10:42 PM · v2.0.0
Travis Homer Under 6.5 rushing yardsWin · -1
-104 DraftKingsProj 3.352.8%EV +3.5%Value
Steelers@Browns · saved Oct 1, 4:24 PM · v2.0.0
Blake Whiteheart Under 0.5 receptionsWin · 0
+104 DraftKingsProj 0.550.4%EV +2.8%Lean
Steelers@Browns · saved Oct 1, 4:24 PM · v2.0.0
KC Concepcion Under 0.5 rushing yardsWin · 0
-120 FanDuelProj 2.654.3%EV -0.4%Pass
Steelers@Browns · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · v2.0.0
Germie Bernard Over 1.5 receptionsWin · 2
+134 FanDuelProj 2.342.3%EV -1.0%Pass
Steelers@Browns · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · v2.0.0
Germie Bernard Over 10.5 receiving yardsWin · 11
-109 DraftKingsProj 23.251.5%EV -1.3%Pass
Steelers@Browns · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · v2.0.0
Raheim Sanders Under 6.5 rushing yardsLoss · 9
-124 DraftKingsProj 10.853.3%EV -3.7%Pass
Steelers@Browns · saved Sep 30, 5:27 PM · v2.0.0
Michael Pittman Jr. Under 35.5 receiving yardsWin · 15
-115 BetMGMProj 37.653.2%EV -0.5%Pass
Steelers@Browns · saved Sep 30, 1:34 AM · v2.0.0
Denzel Boston Over 36.5 receiving yardsWin · 89
-110 theScore BetProj 62.553.3%EV +1.8%Lean
Steelers@Browns · saved Sep 30, 1:34 AM · v2.0.0
Deshaun Watson Under 187.5 passing yardsLoss · 268
-112 DraftKingsProj 192.450.2%EV -4.9%Pass
Steelers@Browns · saved Sep 30, 1:34 AM · v2.0.0
Aaron Rodgers Over 212.5 passing yardsWin · 299
-112 DraftKingsProj 220.350.8%EV -3.8%Pass
Steelers@Browns · saved Sep 30, 1:34 AM · v2.0.0
Jaylen Warren Under 64.5 rushing yardsLoss · 93
-105 theScore BetProj 63.652.5%EV +2.6%Lean
Steelers@Browns · saved Sep 29, 2:41 AM · v2.0.0
Raheim Sanders Under 1.5 receptionsLoss · 2
+158 FanDuelProj 2.138.2%EV -1.3%Pass
Steelers@Browns · saved Sep 29, 2:41 AM · v2.0.0
Quinshon Judkins Over 2.5 receptionsWin · 6
+145 DraftKingsProj 2.339.6%EV -2.9%Pass
Steelers@Browns · saved Sep 29, 2:41 AM · v2.0.0
Roman Wilson Over 2.5 receptionsWin · 3
+109 DraftKingsProj 2.646.5%EV -2.8%Pass
Steelers@Browns · saved Sep 29, 2:41 AM · v2.0.0
Raheim Sanders Over 12.5 receiving yardsLoss · 7
-114 DraftKingsProj 16.651.3%EV -3.6%Pass
Steelers@Browns · saved Sep 29, 2:41 AM · v2.0.0
Quinshon Judkins Under 12.5 receiving yardsLoss · 43
-110 DraftKingsProj 14.852.8%EV +0.7%Pass
Steelers@Browns · saved Sep 29, 2:41 AM · v2.0.0
Roman Wilson Over 22.5 receiving yardsWin · 74
-109 DraftKingsProj 30.151.6%EV -1.1%Pass
Steelers@Browns · saved Sep 29, 2:41 AM · v2.0.0
DK Metcalf Over 41.5 receiving yardsWin · 115
-111 DraftKingsProj 50.149.8%EV -5.3%Pass
Steelers@Browns · saved Sep 29, 2:26 AM · v2.0.0
Deshaun Watson Over 29.5 rushing yardsLoss · 22
-114 FanDuelProj 3451.1%EV -4.0%Pass
Steelers@Browns · saved Sep 29, 1:13 AM · v2.0.0
Darnell Washington Over 15.5 receiving yardsWin · 27
-114 FanDuelProj 27.655.3%EV +3.8%Value
Steelers@Browns · saved Sep 29, 1:13 AM · v2.0.0
Pat Freiermuth Under 29.5 receiving yardsWin · 17
-110 theScore BetProj 34.850.0%EV -4.6%Pass
Steelers@Browns · saved Sep 29, 1:13 AM · v2.0.0
KC Concepcion Under 33.5 receiving yardsLoss · 64
-110 theScore BetProj 26.253.1%EV +1.4%Lean
Steelers@Browns · saved Sep 29, 1:13 AM · v2.0.0

Pick	Odds	Proj	Prob		Rating		Result
Treylon Burks Under 1.5 receptions Colts@Commanders · 10/4/2026 · saved Oct 3, 8:53 PM · model v2.0.0	+112 FanDuel	1.1	49.4%	+4.6%	Value high confidence	+120	Win · 1
Treylon Burks Under 15.5 receiving yards Colts@Commanders · 10/4/2026 · saved Oct 3, 8:53 PM · model v2.0.0	-113 FanDuel	12.5	54.8%	+3.3%	Lean high confidence	-113	Loss · 47
Chig Okonkwo Under 2.5 receptions Colts@Commanders · 10/4/2026 · saved Oct 3, 3:15 AM · model v2.0.0	+100 Novig	2.1	48.3%	-3.4%	Pass low confidence	-125	Win · 2
Chig Okonkwo Under 23.5 receiving yards Colts@Commanders · 10/4/2026 · saved Oct 3, 3:15 AM · model v2.0.0	-114 FanDuel	16.8	51.8%	-2.8%	Pass low confidence	-113	Win · 5
Seth McGowan Under 5.5 rushing yards Colts@Commanders · 10/4/2026 · saved Oct 2, 6:46 PM · model v2.0.0	-106 DraftKings	4.9	52.9%	+2.8%	Lean medium confidence	-113	Loss · 31
Laquon Treadwell Under 1.5 receptions Colts@Commanders · 10/4/2026 · saved Oct 2, 2:29 AM · model v2.0.0	-168 DraftKings	0.9	65.3%	+4.2%	Value medium confidence	+118	Loss · 5
Laquon Treadwell Under 13.5 receiving yards Colts@Commanders · 10/4/2026 · saved Oct 1, 4:24 PM · model v2.0.0	-109 DraftKings	18.3	50.7%	-2.7%	Pass medium confidence	-115	Loss · 42
Antonio Williams Over 1.5 receptions Colts@Commanders · 10/4/2026 · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · model v2.0.0	-172 FanDuel	2.9	63.1%	-0.3%	Pass medium confidence	-136	Win · 3
Antonio Williams Over 17.5 receiving yards Colts@Commanders · 10/4/2026 · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · model v2.0.0	-113 DraftKings	33.1	53.7%	+1.2%	Lean medium confidence	-109	Win · 21
Terry McLaurin Over 53.5 receiving yards Colts@Commanders · 10/4/2026 · saved Sep 30, 5:27 PM · model v2.0.0	-110 DraftKings	57.5	50.1%	-4.4%	Pass high confidence	-113	Void
Marcus Mariota Under 27.5 rushing yards Colts@Commanders · 10/4/2026 · saved Sep 30, 1:34 AM · model v2.0.0	-110 theScore Bet	20.8	53.1%	+1.4%	Lean medium confidence	-140	Loss · 35
Jonathan Taylor Under 89.5 rushing yards Colts@Commanders · 10/4/2026 · saved Sep 30, 1:34 AM · model v2.0.0	-105 theScore Bet	89.6	52.3%	+2.1%	Lean high confidence	-110	Loss · 95
Jonathan Taylor Under 2.5 receptions Colts@Commanders · 10/4/2026 · saved Sep 30, 1:34 AM · model v2.0.0	+108 DraftKings	2.8	46.8%	-2.7%	Pass high confidence	+107	Win · 1
Stefon Diggs Over 4.5 receptions Colts@Commanders · 10/4/2026 · saved Sep 30, 1:34 AM · model v2.0.0	+126 DraftKings	4.7	45.4%	+2.6%	Lean high confidence	-108	Win · 5
Jonathan Taylor Over 19.5 receiving yards Colts@Commanders · 10/4/2026 · saved Sep 30, 1:34 AM · model v2.0.0	-109 DraftKings	22.2	50.0%	-4.1%	Pass high confidence	-111	Loss · 2
Stefon Diggs Under 42.5 receiving yards Colts@Commanders · 10/4/2026 · saved Sep 30, 1:34 AM · model v2.0.0	-114 DraftKings	52.3	50.4%	-5.3%	Pass high confidence	-113	Win · 35
Josh Downs Under 64.5 receiving yards Colts@Commanders · 10/4/2026 · saved Sep 30, 1:34 AM · model v2.0.0	-114 DraftKings	49.1	55.3%	+3.8%	Value high confidence	-113	Win · 16
Marcus Mariota Under 212.5 passing yards Colts@Commanders · 10/4/2026 · saved Sep 30, 1:34 AM · model v2.0.0	-112 DraftKings	165.7	53.6%	+1.5%	Lean medium confidence	-112	Win · 46
Daniel Jones Under 11.5 rushing yards Colts@Commanders · 10/4/2026 · saved Sep 29, 3:28 AM · model v2.0.0	-110 DraftKings	10	54.6%	+4.2%	Value high confidence	-110	Win · 2
Keenan Allen Over 33.5 receiving yards Colts@Commanders · 10/4/2026 · saved Sep 29, 3:28 AM · model v2.0.0	-109 DraftKings	39.2	50.3%	-3.5%	Pass high confidence	-112	Void
Tyler Warren Under 46.5 receiving yards Colts@Commanders · 10/4/2026 · saved Sep 29, 3:28 AM · model v2.0.0	-112 DraftKings	43.4	54.8%	+3.7%	Value high confidence	-114	Win · 41
Daniel Jones Under 224.5 passing yards Colts@Commanders · 10/4/2026 · saved Sep 29, 3:28 AM · model v2.0.0	-111 DraftKings	230.3	50.1%	-4.8%	Pass high confidence	-111	Win · 143
Jacory Croskey-Merritt Under 54.5 rushing yards Colts@Commanders · 10/4/2026 · saved Sep 29, 2:17 AM · model v2.0.0	-114 FanDuel	52.8	54.1%	+1.6%	Lean high confidence	-113	Win · 15
Keenan Allen Over 3.5 receptions Colts@Commanders · 10/4/2026 · saved Sep 29, 2:17 AM · model v2.0.0	-106 DraftKings	4.4	53.3%	+3.6%	Value high confidence	-133	Void
Terry McLaurin Under 4.5 receptions Colts@Commanders · 10/4/2026 · saved Sep 29, 2:17 AM · model v2.0.0	-112 FanDuel	3.9	54.7%	+3.5%	Lean high confidence	-160	Void
Josh Downs Under 5.5 receptions Colts@Commanders · 10/4/2026 · saved Sep 29, 2:17 AM · model v2.0.0	-154 DraftKings	4.4	62.0%	+2.2%	Lean high confidence	-110	Win · 3
Tyler Warren Under 5.5 receptions Colts@Commanders · 10/4/2026 · saved Sep 29, 2:17 AM · model v2.0.0	-117 DraftKings	5	55.5%	+3.0%	Lean high confidence	+105	Win · 5
Blake Whiteheart Over 3.5 receiving yards Steelers@Browns · 10/2/2026 · saved Oct 1, 10:42 PM · model v2.0.0	+114 FanDuel	5.3	45.3%	-3.0%	Pass medium confidence	+114	Loss · 0
Travis Homer Under 6.5 rushing yards Steelers@Browns · 10/2/2026 · saved Oct 1, 4:24 PM · model v2.0.0	-104 DraftKings	3.3	52.8%	+3.5%	Value medium confidence	-108	Win · -1
Blake Whiteheart Under 0.5 receptions Steelers@Browns · 10/2/2026 · saved Oct 1, 4:24 PM · model v2.0.0	+104 DraftKings	0.5	50.4%	+2.8%	Lean medium confidence	-110	Win · 0
KC Concepcion Under 0.5 rushing yards Steelers@Browns · 10/2/2026 · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · model v2.0.0	-120 FanDuel	2.6	54.3%	-0.4%	Pass medium confidence	-106	Win · 0
Germie Bernard Over 1.5 receptions Steelers@Browns · 10/2/2026 · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · model v2.0.0	+134 FanDuel	2.3	42.3%	-1.0%	Pass low confidence	+172	Win · 2
Germie Bernard Over 10.5 receiving yards Steelers@Browns · 10/2/2026 · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · model v2.0.0	-109 DraftKings	23.2	51.5%	-1.3%	Pass low confidence	-107	Win · 11
Raheim Sanders Under 6.5 rushing yards Steelers@Browns · 10/2/2026 · saved Sep 30, 5:27 PM · model v2.0.0	-124 DraftKings	10.8	53.3%	-3.7%	Pass medium confidence	-111	Loss · 9
Michael Pittman Jr. Under 35.5 receiving yards Steelers@Browns · 10/2/2026 · saved Sep 30, 1:34 AM · model v2.0.0	-115 BetMGM	37.6	53.2%	-0.5%	Pass medium confidence	-115	Win · 15
Denzel Boston Over 36.5 receiving yards Steelers@Browns · 10/2/2026 · saved Sep 30, 1:34 AM · model v2.0.0	-110 theScore Bet	62.5	53.3%	+1.8%	Lean medium confidence	-110	Win · 89
Deshaun Watson Under 187.5 passing yards Steelers@Browns · 10/2/2026 · saved Sep 30, 1:34 AM · model v2.0.0	-112 DraftKings	192.4	50.2%	-4.9%	Pass medium confidence	-112	Loss · 268
Aaron Rodgers Over 212.5 passing yards Steelers@Browns · 10/2/2026 · saved Sep 30, 1:34 AM · model v2.0.0	-112 DraftKings	220.3	50.8%	-3.8%	Pass high confidence	-113	Win · 299
Jaylen Warren Under 64.5 rushing yards Steelers@Browns · 10/2/2026 · saved Sep 29, 2:41 AM · model v2.0.0	-105 theScore Bet	63.6	52.5%	+2.6%	Lean high confidence	-105	Loss · 93
Raheim Sanders Under 1.5 receptions Steelers@Browns · 10/2/2026 · saved Sep 29, 2:41 AM · model v2.0.0	+158 FanDuel	2.1	38.2%	-1.3%	Pass medium confidence	+148	Loss · 2
Quinshon Judkins Over 2.5 receptions Steelers@Browns · 10/2/2026 · saved Sep 29, 2:41 AM · model v2.0.0	+145 DraftKings	2.3	39.6%	-2.9%	Pass high confidence	-190	Win · 6
Roman Wilson Over 2.5 receptions Steelers@Browns · 10/2/2026 · saved Sep 29, 2:41 AM · model v2.0.0	+109 DraftKings	2.6	46.5%	-2.8%	Pass high confidence	+121	Win · 3
Raheim Sanders Over 12.5 receiving yards Steelers@Browns · 10/2/2026 · saved Sep 29, 2:41 AM · model v2.0.0	-114 DraftKings	16.6	51.3%	-3.6%	Pass medium confidence	-110	Loss · 7
Quinshon Judkins Under 12.5 receiving yards Steelers@Browns · 10/2/2026 · saved Sep 29, 2:41 AM · model v2.0.0	-110 DraftKings	14.8	52.8%	+0.7%	Pass high confidence	-111	Loss · 43
Roman Wilson Over 22.5 receiving yards Steelers@Browns · 10/2/2026 · saved Sep 29, 2:41 AM · model v2.0.0	-109 DraftKings	30.1	51.6%	-1.1%	Pass high confidence	-109	Win · 74
DK Metcalf Over 41.5 receiving yards Steelers@Browns · 10/2/2026 · saved Sep 29, 2:26 AM · model v2.0.0	-111 DraftKings	50.1	49.8%	-5.3%	Pass high confidence	-113	Win · 115
Deshaun Watson Over 29.5 rushing yards Steelers@Browns · 10/2/2026 · saved Sep 29, 1:13 AM · model v2.0.0	-114 FanDuel	34	51.1%	-4.0%	Pass medium confidence	-113	Loss · 22
Darnell Washington Over 15.5 receiving yards Steelers@Browns · 10/2/2026 · saved Sep 29, 1:13 AM · model v2.0.0	-114 FanDuel	27.6	55.3%	+3.8%	Value high confidence	-113	Win · 27
Pat Freiermuth Under 29.5 receiving yards Steelers@Browns · 10/2/2026 · saved Sep 29, 1:13 AM · model v2.0.0	-110 theScore Bet	34.8	50.0%	-4.6%	Pass high confidence	-115	Win · 17
KC Concepcion Under 33.5 receiving yards Steelers@Browns · 10/2/2026 · saved Sep 29, 1:13 AM · model v2.0.0	-110 theScore Bet	26.2	53.1%	+1.4%	Lean medium confidence	-130	Loss · 64

Past performance is no promise of future results. Model probabilities are estimates, not certainties. Sports betting involves financial risk.