Track record
Every model prediction is saved before kickoff with its price, projection, probability and model version, then graded from official stats. Nothing is edited after the fact. Current model v2.0.0.
Live verified recordDeveloping sample
Last graded Oct 5, 1:42 AMRECORD
258–218
476 graded
54.2%
+22.25
1 unit per prediction
+4.7%
+0.7%
STREAK
L6
64 pending
Rated Value or better only: 53–44 · +5.88uEarly results
Every prediction is timestamped and saved before kickoff with its price, projection and model version, then graded from official stats. Nothing is edited or removed after.
100 verified predictions reached. Next milestone: 500 graded (24 to go).
Past performance is no promise of future results. Model probabilities are estimates, not certainties. Sports betting involves financial risk.
By prop typebest and worst, nothing hidden
Receiving yardsDeveloping sample
100–80
55.6%+5.4% ROICLV -0.0%
ReceptionsDeveloping sample
98–81
54.7%+8.8% ROICLV +1.1%
Rushing yardsEarly results
49–40
55.1%+4.4% ROICLV +0.2%
Passing yardsEarly results
11–17
39.3%-25.5% ROICLV -0.0%
Small sample sizes. Prop types with under 100 graded predictions haven't shown long-term performance yet; a few results either way swing these numbers a lot.
Closing line value265 with a comparable close
compares the price saved before the game with the market's final price at the same line. Beating the close consistently is one of the best signs a model finds value before the market does, and it shows up long before win rates settle.
Avg CLV
+0.7%
Beat the close
43%
of graded predictions
NFL CLV
+0.7%
265 graded
Breakdownmarket / prop type
| Group | Graded | W–L–P | Win rate | Units | ROI | Avg edge | Avg proj. error | Avg CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Passing yards | 28 | 11–17 | 39.3% | -7.14u | -25.5% | -0.3% | 77.6 | -0.0% |
| Receiving yards | 180 | 100–80 | 55.6% | +9.70u | +5.4% | +0.1% | 23.1 | -0.0% |
| Receptions | 179 | 98–81 | 54.7% | +15.80u | +8.8% | +0.5% | 1.7 | +1.1% |
| Rushing yards | 89 | 49–40 | 55.1% | +3.89u | +4.4% | +0.3% | 17.4 | +0.2% |
Calibration
When the model says 60%, it should win about 60% of the time. Actual below predicted means overconfident; above means underconfident. A bucket needs 50+ results before its gap means much.
| Predicted | Graded | Avg predicted | Actual | Gap | Chart |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 50% | 85 | 44.6% | 52.9% | +8.3% | |
| 50–54% | 305 | 52.7% | 53.4% | +0.7% | |
| 55–59% | 57 | 56.8% | 56.1% | -0.6% | |
| 60–64% | 19 | 62.8% | 73.7% | +10.9% | |
| 65–69% | 9 | 66.5% | 33.3% | -33.1% | |
| 70%+ | 1 | 70.3% | 100.0% | +29.7% |
Bar: actual win rate. Green tick: average predicted probability.
Backtest a selection rule
Replays only predictions saved before their games started, so a rule can't use information that didn't exist at bet time. Uses the sport, market, model and dates above.
Every prediction1–50 of 567
- Bijan Robinson Over 85.5 rushing yardsPending-113
DraftKingsProj 10352.5%EV -1.0%Pass
Falcons@
Saints · saved Oct 1, 4:24 PM · v2.0.0 - Olamide Zaccheaus Over 1.5 receptionsPending+163DraftKingsProj 1.840.3%EV +6.0%ValueFalcons@Saints · saved Oct 1, 4:24 PM · v2.0.0
- Olamide Zaccheaus Under 7.5 receiving yardsPending-110
theScore BetProj 12.850.4%EV -3.7%PassFalcons@Saints · saved Oct 1, 4:24 PM · v2.0.0 - Jahan Dotson Under 18.5 receiving yardsPending-115
BetMGMProj 16.355.2%EV +3.1%ValueFalcons@Saints · saved Oct 1, 4:24 PM · v2.0.0 - Alvin Kamara Under 39.5 rushing yardsPending-115DraftKingsProj 33.954.9%EV +2.7%LeanFalcons@Saints · saved Oct 1, 8:22 AM · v2.0.0
- Noah Fant Over 2.5 receptionsPending+130theScore BetProj 2.643.9%EV +0.9%PassFalcons@Saints · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · v2.0.0
- Michael Penix Jr. Under 5.5 rushing yardsPending-110theScore BetProj 5.453.2%EV +1.5%LeanFalcons@Saints · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · v2.0.0
- Brian Robinson Jr. Under 31.5 rushing yardsPending-110DraftKingsProj 31.952.5%EV +0.2%PassFalcons@Saints · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · v2.0.0
- Devaughn Vele Under 4.5 receptionsPending-149DraftKingsProj 4.159.1%EV -1.2%PassFalcons@Saints · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · v2.0.0
- Michael Penix Jr. Under 224.5 passing yardsPending-110theScore BetProj 214.552.7%EV +0.5%PassFalcons@Saints · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · v2.0.0
- Tyler Shough Under 16.5 rushing yardsPending-110DraftKingsProj 19.650.7%EV -3.3%PassFalcons@Saints · saved Sep 30, 5:27 PM · v2.0.0
- Austin Hooper Over 11.5 receiving yardsPending-114
FanDuelProj 18.253.6%EV +0.5%PassFalcons@Saints · saved Sep 30, 5:27 PM · v2.0.0 - Kyle Pitts Under 27.5 receiving yardsPending-116DraftKingsProj 34.253.6%EV -0.2%PassFalcons@Saints · saved Sep 30, 5:27 PM · v2.0.0
- Juwan Johnson Over 40.5 receiving yardsPending-112DraftKingsProj 54.754.8%EV +3.7%ValueFalcons@Saints · saved Sep 30, 5:27 PM · v2.0.0
- Devaughn Vele Under 44.5 receiving yardsPending-110theScore BetProj 48.151.0%EV -2.6%PassFalcons@Saints · saved Sep 30, 2:58 PM · v2.0.0
- Alvin Kamara Under 16.5 receiving yardsPending-110theScore BetProj 13.453.1%EV +1.4%LeanFalcons@Saints · saved Sep 30, 2:58 PM · v2.0.0
- Drake London Under 74.5 receiving yardsPending-110theScore BetProj 7653.1%EV +1.4%LeanFalcons@Saints · saved Sep 30, 2:58 PM · v2.0.0
- Bijan Robinson Under 39.5 receiving yardsPending-110theScore BetProj 43.651.5%EV -1.6%PassFalcons@Saints · saved Sep 30, 2:58 PM · v2.0.0
- Tyler Shough Over 254.5 passing yardsPending-114FanDuelProj 272.751.4%EV -3.6%PassFalcons@Saints · saved Sep 30, 2:58 PM · v2.0.0
- Kendre Miller Under 20.5 rushing yardsPending-113DraftKingsProj 23.650.9%EV -4.1%PassFalcons@Saints · saved Sep 30, 2:58 PM · v2.0.0
- Austin Hooper Over 1.5 receptionsPending+119DraftKingsProj 1.745.6%EV -0.1%PassFalcons@Saints · saved Sep 30, 2:58 PM · v2.0.0
- Jahan Dotson Under 1.5 receptionsPending+112FanDuelProj 1.349.7%EV +5.3%ValueFalcons@Saints · saved Sep 30, 2:58 PM · v2.0.0
- Kyle Pitts Under 2.5 receptionsPending+116DraftKingsProj 3.247.4%EV +2.4%LeanFalcons@Saints · saved Sep 30, 2:58 PM · v2.0.0
- Alvin Kamara Under 3.5 receptionsPending-166FanDuelProj 2.961.3%EV -1.7%PassFalcons@Saints · saved Sep 30, 2:58 PM · v2.0.0
- Juwan Johnson Over 3.5 receptionsPending-107DraftKingsProj 4.754.2%EV +4.8%ValueFalcons@Saints · saved Sep 30, 2:58 PM · v2.0.0
- Bijan Robinson Under 4.5 receptionsPending-114FanDuelProj 4.452.3%EV -1.8%PassFalcons@Saints · saved Sep 30, 2:58 PM · v2.0.0
- Drake London Under 5.5 receptionsPending-130FanDuelProj 557.1%EV +1.1%LeanFalcons@Saints · saved Sep 30, 2:58 PM · v2.0.0
- Chris Olave Over 7.5 receptionsPending+124FanDuelProj 7.544.6%EV -0.1%PassFalcons@Saints · saved Sep 30, 2:58 PM · v2.0.0
- Noah Fant Over 16.5 receiving yardsPending-113DraftKingsProj 21.952.7%EV -0.6%PassFalcons@Saints · saved Sep 30, 2:58 PM · v2.0.0
- Chris Olave Over 86.5 receiving yardsPending-112DraftKingsProj 94.550.3%EV -4.8%PassFalcons@Saints · saved Sep 30, 2:58 PM · v2.0.0
- Mitchell Evans Over 1.5 receptionsPending+178
NovigProj 1.438.2%EV +6.1%Value
Lions@
Panthers · saved Oct 4, 11:06 PM · v2.0.0 - Mitchell Evans Over 7.5 receiving yardsPending-102NovigProj 14.155.0%EV +8.9%Strong valueLions@Panthers · saved Oct 4, 11:06 PM · v2.0.0
- Brycen Tremayne Under 33.5 receiving yardsPending-113FanDuelProj 18.654.8%EV +3.3%LeanLions@Panthers · saved Oct 4, 6:20 PM · v2.0.0
- Brycen Tremayne Under 2.5 receptionsPending-105DraftKingsProj 1.253.8%EV +5.0%LeanLions@Panthers · saved Oct 4, 6:20 PM · v2.0.0
- Brock Wright Over 0.5 receptionsPending-148FanDuelProj 1.160.0%EV +0.5%PassLions@Panthers · saved Oct 3, 6:30 PM · v2.0.0
- Brock Wright Under 5.5 receiving yardsPending-128FanDuelProj 7.655.3%EV -1.5%PassLions@Panthers · saved Oct 3, 6:30 PM · v2.0.0
- Jalen Coker Over 4.5 receptionsPending-102FanDuelProj 549.9%EV -1.2%PassLions@Panthers · saved Oct 1, 10:42 PM · v2.0.0
- Jalen Coker Over 49.5 receiving yardsPending-114FanDuelProj 61.851.7%EV -2.9%PassLions@Panthers · saved Oct 1, 10:42 PM · v2.0.0
- Tommy Tremble Over 12.5 receiving yardsPending-114FanDuelProj 21.155.3%EV +3.8%ValueLions@Panthers · saved Oct 1, 4:24 PM · v2.0.0
- Jared Goff Over 1.5 rushing yardsPending-113DraftKingsProj 4.353.3%EV +0.5%PassLions@Panthers · saved Oct 1, 4:24 PM · v2.0.0
- Sione Vaki Under 9.5 rushing yardsPending-110DraftKingsProj 8.954.3%EV +3.7%LeanLions@Panthers · saved Oct 1, 4:24 PM · v2.0.0
- AJ Dillon Under 13.5 rushing yardsPending-114FanDuelProj 13.253.6%EV +0.6%PassLions@Panthers · saved Oct 1, 4:24 PM · v2.0.0
- Tommy Tremble Over 1.5 receptionsPending-151DraftKingsProj 2.360.4%EV +0.4%PassLions@Panthers · saved Oct 1, 4:24 PM · v2.0.0
- Darren Waller Over 2.5 receptionsPending-130FanDuelProj 3.155.6%EV -1.7%PassLions@Panthers · saved Oct 1, 4:24 PM · v2.0.0
- Darren Waller Over 24.5 receiving yardsPending-105theScore BetProj 34.853.6%EV +4.7%ValueLions@Panthers · saved Oct 1, 4:24 PM · v2.0.0
- Sam LaPorta Under 48.5 receiving yardsPending-113DraftKingsProj 52.650.4%EV -5.0%PassLions@Panthers · saved Sep 30, 5:27 PM · v2.0.0
- Jahmyr Gibbs Under 94.5 rushing yardsPending-114FanDuelProj 88.455.2%EV +3.7%LeanLions@Panthers · saved Sep 30, 2:54 AM · v2.0.0
- Tetairoa McMillan Under 4.5 receptionsPending+115theScore BetProj 4.248.7%EV +4.7%LeanLions@Panthers · saved Sep 30, 2:54 AM · v2.0.0
- Chuba Hubbard Under 66.5 rushing yardsPending-113DraftKingsProj 47.154.9%EV +3.5%ValueLions@Panthers · saved Sep 30, 2:54 AM · v2.0.0
- Tetairoa McMillan Under 71.5 receiving yardsPending-112DraftKingsProj 63.754.8%EV +3.7%LeanLions@Panthers · saved Sep 30, 2:54 AM · v2.0.0
Past performance is no promise of future results. Model probabilities are estimates, not certainties. Sports betting involves financial risk.