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What is expected value (EV)?
EV is what a bet returns on average if you could place it many times. A 50/50 coin flip that pays $2.10 on a $1 bet has +5% EV: you'll still lose about half the time, but over hundreds of flips you come out ahead. EV says nothing about any single bet.
What is closing line value (CLV)?
Lines move as information arrives. The last price before a game (the close) is usually the most accurate. If you got a better price than the close, you beat the market's final view. Doing that consistently is one of the best signs you're finding real value, and it shows up long before your win rate does.
Why sportsbook consensus matters
One sportsbook can be slow or wrong. When several books agree on a price, that price is hard to beat. Forbidden Picks leans on the consensus and ignores single outliers, which are more often stale lines than real edges.
What does removing the vig mean?
Sportsbooks build in a margin: both sides of a −110 / −110 bet imply 52.4%, which adds up to 104.8%. That extra 4.8% is the vig. Scaling both sides back to 100% gives the market's fair chance (here, 50% each).
How pick'em payouts set your break-even
A 2-pick PrizePicks Power Play pays 3x, so both picks must hit at least 1 in 3 times: each pick needs about 57.7%. Bigger entries and Flex plays need a bit less a pick (about 54% at best). A pick below its break-even loses money on average, however good it looks.
How bankroll management works
Decide your bankroll (money you can afford to lose) and bet a small, fixed share of it: 0.5% to 2% an entry is common. Even a real edge loses often, so small sizes are what keep a bad week from becoming a bad month. Never raise your stakes to win back losses.
Why win rate alone is misleading
A 60% win rate on −200 favorites loses money; a 45% win rate on +150 underdogs makes money. What matters is win rate against the price you got, which is what ROI and EV measure.
Why sample size matters
Thirty bets tell you almost nothing: a coin-flip bettor can easily go 20–10. Results start meaning something after hundreds of bets. That's why the track record labels anything under 50 results a small sample, and why CLV is worth watching earlier.
See how these are applied in the methodology.