Track record

Every model prediction is saved before kickoff with its price, projection, probability and model version, then graded from official stats. Nothing is edited after the fact. Current model v2.0.0.

Live verified recordEstablished sample

Last graded Oct 5, 5:57 AM

RECORD

275–233

508 graded

54.1%

+22.46

1 unit per prediction

+4.4%

+0.6%

STREAK

59 pending

Rated Value or better only: 56–47 · +5.71uDeveloping sample

Sep 29Cumulative units, 1 unit per predictionOct 5

Every prediction is timestamped and saved before kickoff with its price, projection and model version, then graded from official stats. Nothing is edited or removed after.

500 verified predictions reached. Next milestone: 1,000 graded (492 to go).

Past performance is no promise of future results. Model probabilities are estimates, not certainties. Sports betting involves financial risk.

By prop typebest and worst, nothing hidden

Receiving yardsDeveloping sample

106–86

55.2%+4.8% ROICLV -0.0%

ReceptionsDeveloping sample

104–87

54.5%+7.9% ROICLV +1.1%

Rushing yardsEarly results

53–42

55.8%+5.7% ROICLV +0.1%

Passing yardsEarly results

12–18

40.0%-24.1% ROICLV -0.0%

Small sample sizes. Prop types with under 100 graded predictions haven't shown long-term performance yet; a few results either way swing these numbers a lot.

Closing line value282 with a comparable close

compares the price saved before the game with the market's final price at the same line. Beating the close consistently is one of the best signs a model finds value before the market does, and it shows up long before win rates settle.

Avg CLV

+0.6%

Beat the close

42%

of graded predictions

NFL CLV

+0.6%

282 graded

Breakdownmarket / prop type

Group	Graded	W–L–P	Win rate	Units	ROI	Avg edge	Avg proj. error	Avg CLV
Passing yards	30	12–18	40.0%	-7.24u	-24.1%	-0.3%	79.9	-0.0%
Receiving yards	192	106–86	55.2%	+9.23u	+4.8%	+0.1%	23.4	-0.0%
Receptions	191	104–87	54.5%	+15.04u	+7.9%	+0.5%	1.7	+1.1%
Rushing yards	95	53–42	55.8%	+5.43u	+5.7%	+0.3%	17.9	+0.1%

Calibration

When the model says 60%, it should win about 60% of the time. Actual below predicted means overconfident; above means underconfident. A bucket needs 50+ results before its gap means much.

Predicted	Graded	Avg predicted	Actual	Gap
Under 50%	90	44.7%	52.2%	+7.5%
50–54%	324	52.7%	53.1%	+0.4%
55–59%	64	56.7%	57.8%	+1.1%
60–64%	20	62.7%	75.0%	+12.3%
65–69%	9	66.5%	33.3%	-33.1%
70%+	1	70.3%	100.0%	+29.7%

Bar: actual win rate. Green tick: average predicted probability.

Backtest a selection rule

Replays only predictions saved before their games started, so a rule can't use information that didn't exist at bet time. Uses the sport, market, model and dates above.

Every prediction351–400 of 596

Brenton Strange Under 33.5 receiving yardsLoss · 95
-109 DraftKingsProj 33.853.2%EV +2.0%Lean
Jaguars@Bengals · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · v2.0.0
Joe Burrow Under 269.5 passing yardsLoss · 428
-113 DraftKingsProj 243.454.9%EV +3.5%Lean
Jaguars@Bengals · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · v2.0.0
Braelon Allen Under 55.5 rushing yardsLoss · 59
-114 FanDuelProj 22.553.6%EV +0.6%Pass
Jets@Bears · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · v2.0.0
Cole Kmet Over 9.5 receiving yardsWin · 13
-114 FanDuelProj 1550.8%EV -4.7%Pass
Jets@Bears · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · v2.0.0
D'Andre Swift Over 14.5 receiving yardsWin · 16
-114 FanDuelProj 2051.2%EV -4.0%Pass
Jets@Bears · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · v2.0.0
Luther Burden III Under 46.5 receiving yardsLoss · 63
-114 FanDuelProj 5151.8%EV -2.8%Pass
Jets@Bears · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · v2.0.0
Geno Smith Under 11.5 rushing yardsWin · 0
-112 DraftKingsProj 9.454.8%EV +3.7%Value
Jets@Bears · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · v2.0.0
Kyle Monangai Under 38.5 rushing yardsLoss · 146
-110 DraftKingsProj 48.250.2%EV -4.2%Pass
Jets@Bears · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · v2.0.0
D'Andre Swift Over 66.5 rushing yardsLoss · 58
-110 DraftKingsProj 75.251.3%EV -2.1%Pass
Jets@Bears · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · v2.0.0
Cole Kmet Over 1.5 receptionsWin · 2
+182 FanDuelProj 1.335.4%EV -0.3%Pass
Jets@Bears · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · v2.0.0
D'Andre Swift Under 2.5 receptionsWin · 2
-165 BetMGMProj 2.261.8%EV -0.8%Pass
Jets@Bears · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · v2.0.0
Rome Odunze Over 2.5 receptionsWin · 6
+105 BetMGMProj 2.848.3%EV -0.9%Pass
Jets@Bears · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · v2.0.0
Colston Loveland Under 3.5 receptionsLoss · 6
-129 DraftKingsProj 3.157.7%EV +2.5%Lean
Jets@Bears · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · v2.0.0
Kalif Raymond Over 3.5 receptionsLoss · 2
+115 theScore BetProj 3.948.2%EV +3.7%Value
Jets@Bears · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · v2.0.0
Luther Burden III Under 4.5 receptionsWin · 4
-131 DraftKingsProj 4.255.9%EV -1.4%Pass
Jets@Bears · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · v2.0.0
Garrett Wilson Under 6.5 receptionsWin · 3
-110 DraftKingsProj 5.955.2%EV +5.3%Value
Jets@Bears · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · v2.0.0
Colston Loveland Under 31.5 receiving yardsLoss · 57
-110 theScore BetProj 36.852.9%EV +1.1%Lean
Jets@Bears · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · v2.0.0
Kalif Raymond Over 31.5 receiving yardsLoss · 6
-114 FanDuelProj 4554.6%EV +2.5%Lean
Jets@Bears · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · v2.0.0
Garrett Wilson Under 76.5 receiving yardsWin · 27
-111 DraftKingsProj 67.354.7%EV +4.0%Value
Jets@Bears · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · v2.0.0
Khalil Shakir Under 37.5 receiving yardsLoss · 82
-114 DraftKingsProj 40.852.4%EV -1.6%Pass
Patriots@Bills · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · v2.0.0
Cam Ward Under 9.5 rushing yardsLoss · 27
-110 theScore BetProj 9.954.3%EV +3.7%Value
Titans@Ravens · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · v2.0.0
Derrick Henry Under 96.5 rushing yardsWin · 73
-114 FanDuelProj 103.450.5%EV -5.2%Pass
Titans@Ravens · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · v2.0.0
Elic Ayomanor Over 20.5 receiving yardsWin · 22
-114 FanDuelProj 28.753.2%EV -0.1%Pass
Titans@Ravens · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · v2.0.0
Zay Flowers Over 68.5 receiving yardsWin · 118
-114 FanDuelProj 78.850.5%EV -5.2%Pass
Titans@Ravens · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · v2.0.0
Tony Pollard Under 9.5 receiving yardsWin · 2
-114 DraftKingsProj 10.454.1%EV +1.6%Lean
Titans@Ravens · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · v2.0.0
Gunnar Helm Under 18.5 receiving yardsWin · 5
-110 theScore BetProj 20.850.7%EV -3.1%Pass
Titans@Ravens · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · v2.0.0
Mark Andrews Under 37.5 receiving yardsWin · 27
-112 DraftKingsProj 30.854.8%EV +3.7%Value
Titans@Ravens · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · v2.0.0
Wan'Dale Robinson Over 38.5 receiving yardsLoss · 19
-110 DraftKingsProj 51.450.7%EV -3.2%Pass
Titans@Ravens · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · v2.0.0
Carnell Tate Under 42.5 receiving yardsLoss · 145
-111 DraftKingsProj 41.953.2%EV +1.2%Lean
Titans@Ravens · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · v2.0.0
Cam Ward Under 185.5 passing yardsLoss · 222
-111 DraftKingsProj 177.653.8%EV +2.2%Lean
Titans@Ravens · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · v2.0.0
Marvin Harrison Jr. Under 34.5 receiving yardsWin · 12
-110 theScore BetProj 35.553.8%EV +2.7%Lean
Cardinals@Giants · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · v2.0.0
Jacoby Brissett Over 7.5 rushing yardsWin · 18
-112 DraftKingsProj 1151.4%EV -2.8%Pass
Cardinals@Giants · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · v2.0.0
Tyler Allgeier Over 18.5 rushing yardsWin · 42
-114 FanDuelProj 27.152.3%EV -1.8%Pass
Cardinals@Giants · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · v2.0.0
Najee Harris Under 23.5 rushing yardsLoss · 30
-109 DraftKingsProj 26.250.7%EV -2.9%Pass
Cardinals@Giants · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · v2.0.0
Cam Skattebo Under 63.5 rushing yardsWin · 58
-112 DraftKingsProj 57.754.9%EV +3.8%Value
Cardinals@Giants · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · v2.0.0
Darnell Mooney Under 1.5 receptionsWin · 0
+134 FanDuelProj 1.941.9%EV -2.0%Pass
Cardinals@Giants · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · v2.0.0
Malachi Fields Under 1.5 receptionsLoss · 2
+136 DraftKingsProj 240.8%EV -3.7%Pass
Cardinals@Giants · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · v2.0.0
Kendrick Bourne Over 2.5 receptionsVoid
+144 DraftKingsProj 2.842.1%EV +2.7%Lean
Cardinals@Giants · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · v2.0.0
Marvin Harrison Jr. Under 2.5 receptionsWin · 1
-114 FanDuelProj 2.354.9%EV +3.1%Value
Cardinals@Giants · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · v2.0.0
Cam Skattebo Under 2.5 receptionsWin · 1
-114 DraftKingsProj 2.553.7%EV +0.8%Pass
Cardinals@Giants · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · v2.0.0
Jeremiyah Love Over 3.5 receptionsLoss · 1
+142 FanDuelProj 3.340.9%EV -1.0%Pass
Cardinals@Giants · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · v2.0.0
Malik Nabers Under 4.5 receptionsLoss · 6
+119 DraftKingsProj 448.8%EV +6.8%Value
Cardinals@Giants · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · v2.0.0
Michael Wilson Under 5.5 receptionsLoss · 7
-148 DraftKingsProj 5.556.8%EV -4.9%Pass
Cardinals@Giants · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · v2.0.0
Trey McBride Over 7.5 receptionsLoss · 7
+110 theScore BetProj 849.3%EV +3.5%Value
Cardinals@Giants · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · v2.0.0
Malik Nabers Under 54.5 receiving yardsLoss · 112
-111 DraftKingsProj 45.153.5%EV +1.7%Lean
Cardinals@Giants · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · v2.0.0
Trey McBride Over 67.5 receiving yardsLoss · 31
-113 DraftKingsProj 73.150.7%EV -4.4%Pass
Cardinals@Giants · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · v2.0.0
Chris Godwin Over 27.5 receiving yardsWin · 31
-111 DraftKingsProj 35.850.5%EV -4.1%Pass
Packers@Buccaneers · saved Sep 30, 5:27 PM · v2.0.0
Woody Marks Under 35.5 rushing yardsWin · 22
-109 DraftKingsProj 37.752.5%EV +0.7%Pass
Cowboys@Texans · saved Sep 30, 5:27 PM · v2.0.0
Lamar Jackson Under 33.5 rushing yardsWin · 20
-110 DraftKingsProj 31.254.6%EV +4.2%Value
Titans@Ravens · saved Sep 30, 5:27 PM · v2.0.0
Elic Ayomanor Over 1.5 receptionsLoss · 1
-114 FanDuelProj 254.0%EV +1.4%Lean
Titans@Ravens · saved Sep 30, 5:27 PM · v2.0.0

Pick	Odds	Proj	Prob		Rating		Result
Brenton Strange Under 33.5 receiving yards Jaguars@Bengals · 10/4/2026 · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · model v2.0.0	-109 DraftKings	33.8	53.2%	+2.0%	Lean high confidence	-114	Loss · 95
Joe Burrow Under 269.5 passing yards Jaguars@Bengals · 10/4/2026 · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · model v2.0.0	-113 DraftKings	243.4	54.9%	+3.5%	Lean high confidence	-112	Loss · 428
Braelon Allen Under 55.5 rushing yards Jets@Bears · 10/4/2026 · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · model v2.0.0	-114 FanDuel	22.5	53.6%	+0.6%	Pass medium confidence	-113	Loss · 59
Cole Kmet Over 9.5 receiving yards Jets@Bears · 10/4/2026 · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · model v2.0.0	-114 FanDuel	15	50.8%	-4.7%	Pass high confidence	-113	Win · 13
D'Andre Swift Over 14.5 receiving yards Jets@Bears · 10/4/2026 · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · model v2.0.0	-114 FanDuel	20	51.2%	-4.0%	Pass high confidence	-113	Win · 16
Luther Burden III Under 46.5 receiving yards Jets@Bears · 10/4/2026 · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · model v2.0.0	-114 FanDuel	51	51.8%	-2.8%	Pass high confidence	-113	Loss · 63
Geno Smith Under 11.5 rushing yards Jets@Bears · 10/4/2026 · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · model v2.0.0	-112 DraftKings	9.4	54.8%	+3.7%	Value high confidence	-119	Win · 0
Kyle Monangai Under 38.5 rushing yards Jets@Bears · 10/4/2026 · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · model v2.0.0	-110 DraftKings	48.2	50.2%	-4.2%	Pass high confidence	-110	Loss · 146
D'Andre Swift Over 66.5 rushing yards Jets@Bears · 10/4/2026 · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · model v2.0.0	-110 DraftKings	75.2	51.3%	-2.1%	Pass high confidence	-109	Loss · 58
Cole Kmet Over 1.5 receptions Jets@Bears · 10/4/2026 · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · model v2.0.0	+182 FanDuel	1.3	35.4%	-0.3%	Pass high confidence	+130	Win · 2
D'Andre Swift Under 2.5 receptions Jets@Bears · 10/4/2026 · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · model v2.0.0	-165 BetMGM	2.2	61.8%	-0.8%	Pass high confidence	-190	Win · 2
Rome Odunze Over 2.5 receptions Jets@Bears · 10/4/2026 · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · model v2.0.0	+105 BetMGM	2.8	48.3%	-0.9%	Pass high confidence	-130	Win · 6
Colston Loveland Under 3.5 receptions Jets@Bears · 10/4/2026 · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · model v2.0.0	-129 DraftKings	3.1	57.7%	+2.5%	Lean high confidence	-127	Loss · 6
Kalif Raymond Over 3.5 receptions Jets@Bears · 10/4/2026 · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · model v2.0.0	+115 theScore Bet	3.9	48.2%	+3.7%	Value high confidence	+115	Loss · 2
Luther Burden III Under 4.5 receptions Jets@Bears · 10/4/2026 · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · model v2.0.0	-131 DraftKings	4.2	55.9%	-1.4%	Pass high confidence	-121	Win · 4
Garrett Wilson Under 6.5 receptions Jets@Bears · 10/4/2026 · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · model v2.0.0	-110 DraftKings	5.9	55.2%	+5.3%	Value high confidence	-116	Win · 3
Colston Loveland Under 31.5 receiving yards Jets@Bears · 10/4/2026 · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · model v2.0.0	-110 theScore Bet	36.8	52.9%	+1.1%	Lean high confidence	+100	Loss · 57
Kalif Raymond Over 31.5 receiving yards Jets@Bears · 10/4/2026 · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · model v2.0.0	-114 FanDuel	45	54.6%	+2.5%	Lean high confidence	-113	Loss · 6
Garrett Wilson Under 76.5 receiving yards Jets@Bears · 10/4/2026 · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · model v2.0.0	-111 DraftKings	67.3	54.7%	+4.0%	Value high confidence	-113	Win · 27
Khalil Shakir Under 37.5 receiving yards Patriots@Bills · 10/4/2026 · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · model v2.0.0	-114 DraftKings	40.8	52.4%	-1.6%	Pass high confidence	-110	Loss · 82
Cam Ward Under 9.5 rushing yards Titans@Ravens · 10/4/2026 · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · model v2.0.0	-110 theScore Bet	9.9	54.3%	+3.7%	Value high confidence	+105	Loss · 27
Derrick Henry Under 96.5 rushing yards Titans@Ravens · 10/4/2026 · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · model v2.0.0	-114 FanDuel	103.4	50.5%	-5.2%	Pass high confidence	-113	Win · 73
Elic Ayomanor Over 20.5 receiving yards Titans@Ravens · 10/4/2026 · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · model v2.0.0	-114 FanDuel	28.7	53.2%	-0.1%	Pass high confidence	-113	Win · 22
Zay Flowers Over 68.5 receiving yards Titans@Ravens · 10/4/2026 · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · model v2.0.0	-114 FanDuel	78.8	50.5%	-5.2%	Pass medium confidence	-113	Win · 118
Tony Pollard Under 9.5 receiving yards Titans@Ravens · 10/4/2026 · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · model v2.0.0	-114 DraftKings	10.4	54.1%	+1.6%	Lean high confidence	-115	Win · 2
Gunnar Helm Under 18.5 receiving yards Titans@Ravens · 10/4/2026 · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · model v2.0.0	-110 theScore Bet	20.8	50.7%	-3.1%	Pass high confidence	-125	Win · 5
Mark Andrews Under 37.5 receiving yards Titans@Ravens · 10/4/2026 · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · model v2.0.0	-112 DraftKings	30.8	54.8%	+3.7%	Value high confidence	-115	Win · 27
Wan'Dale Robinson Over 38.5 receiving yards Titans@Ravens · 10/4/2026 · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · model v2.0.0	-110 DraftKings	51.4	50.7%	-3.2%	Pass high confidence	-111	Loss · 19
Carnell Tate Under 42.5 receiving yards Titans@Ravens · 10/4/2026 · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · model v2.0.0	-111 DraftKings	41.9	53.2%	+1.2%	Lean medium confidence	-114	Loss · 145
Cam Ward Under 185.5 passing yards Titans@Ravens · 10/4/2026 · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · model v2.0.0	-111 DraftKings	177.6	53.8%	+2.2%	Lean high confidence	-113	Loss · 222
Marvin Harrison Jr. Under 34.5 receiving yards Cardinals@Giants · 10/4/2026 · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · model v2.0.0	-110 theScore Bet	35.5	53.8%	+2.7%	Lean high confidence	-110	Win · 12
Jacoby Brissett Over 7.5 rushing yards Cardinals@Giants · 10/4/2026 · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · model v2.0.0	-112 DraftKings	11	51.4%	-2.8%	Pass high confidence	-109	Win · 18
Tyler Allgeier Over 18.5 rushing yards Cardinals@Giants · 10/4/2026 · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · model v2.0.0	-114 FanDuel	27.1	52.3%	-1.8%	Pass high confidence	-113	Win · 42
Najee Harris Under 23.5 rushing yards Cardinals@Giants · 10/4/2026 · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · model v2.0.0	-109 DraftKings	26.2	50.7%	-2.9%	Pass medium confidence	-109	Loss · 30
Cam Skattebo Under 63.5 rushing yards Cardinals@Giants · 10/4/2026 · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · model v2.0.0	-112 DraftKings	57.7	54.9%	+3.8%	Value high confidence	-114	Win · 58
Darnell Mooney Under 1.5 receptions Cardinals@Giants · 10/4/2026 · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · model v2.0.0	+134 FanDuel	1.9	41.9%	-2.0%	Pass high confidence	+100	Win · 0
Malachi Fields Under 1.5 receptions Cardinals@Giants · 10/4/2026 · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · model v2.0.0	+136 DraftKings	2	40.8%	-3.7%	Pass medium confidence	+140	Loss · 2
Kendrick Bourne Over 2.5 receptions Cardinals@Giants · 10/4/2026 · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · model v2.0.0	+144 DraftKings	2.8	42.1%	+2.7%	Lean high confidence	+132	Void
Marvin Harrison Jr. Under 2.5 receptions Cardinals@Giants · 10/4/2026 · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · model v2.0.0	-114 FanDuel	2.3	54.9%	+3.1%	Value high confidence	-114	Win · 1
Cam Skattebo Under 2.5 receptions Cardinals@Giants · 10/4/2026 · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · model v2.0.0	-114 DraftKings	2.5	53.7%	+0.8%	Pass high confidence	-113	Win · 1
Jeremiyah Love Over 3.5 receptions Cardinals@Giants · 10/4/2026 · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · model v2.0.0	+142 FanDuel	3.3	40.9%	-1.0%	Pass medium confidence	+136	Loss · 1
Malik Nabers Under 4.5 receptions Cardinals@Giants · 10/4/2026 · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · model v2.0.0	+119 DraftKings	4	48.8%	+6.8%	Value medium confidence	+111	Loss · 6
Michael Wilson Under 5.5 receptions Cardinals@Giants · 10/4/2026 · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · model v2.0.0	-148 DraftKings	5.5	56.8%	-4.9%	Pass high confidence	+121	Loss · 7
Trey McBride Over 7.5 receptions Cardinals@Giants · 10/4/2026 · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · model v2.0.0	+110 theScore Bet	8	49.3%	+3.5%	Value high confidence	-135	Loss · 7
Malik Nabers Under 54.5 receiving yards Cardinals@Giants · 10/4/2026 · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · model v2.0.0	-111 DraftKings	45.1	53.5%	+1.7%	Lean medium confidence	-110	Loss · 112
Trey McBride Over 67.5 receiving yards Cardinals@Giants · 10/4/2026 · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · model v2.0.0	-113 DraftKings	73.1	50.7%	-4.4%	Pass high confidence	-110	Loss · 31
Chris Godwin Over 27.5 receiving yards Packers@Buccaneers · 10/4/2026 · saved Sep 30, 5:27 PM · model v2.0.0	-111 DraftKings	35.8	50.5%	-4.1%	Pass high confidence	-108	Win · 31
Woody Marks Under 35.5 rushing yards Cowboys@Texans · 10/4/2026 · saved Sep 30, 5:27 PM · model v2.0.0	-109 DraftKings	37.7	52.5%	+0.7%	Pass high confidence	-111	Win · 22
Lamar Jackson Under 33.5 rushing yards Titans@Ravens · 10/4/2026 · saved Sep 30, 5:27 PM · model v2.0.0	-110 DraftKings	31.2	54.6%	+4.2%	Value high confidence	-116	Win · 20
Elic Ayomanor Over 1.5 receptions Titans@Ravens · 10/4/2026 · saved Sep 30, 5:27 PM · model v2.0.0	-114 FanDuel	2	54.0%	+1.4%	Lean high confidence	-154	Loss · 1

Past performance is no promise of future results. Model probabilities are estimates, not certainties. Sports betting involves financial risk.