Track record
Every model prediction is saved before kickoff with its price, projection, probability and model version, then graded from official stats. Nothing is edited after the fact. Current model v2.0.0.
Live verified recordEstablished sample
Last graded Oct 5, 5:57 AMRECORD
275–233
508 graded
54.1%
+22.46
1 unit per prediction
+4.4%
+0.6%
STREAK
L1
30 pending
Rated Value or better only: 56–47 · +5.71uDeveloping sample
Every prediction is timestamped and saved before kickoff with its price, projection and model version, then graded from official stats. Nothing is edited or removed after.
500 verified predictions reached. Next milestone: 1,000 graded (492 to go).
Past performance is no promise of future results. Model probabilities are estimates, not certainties. Sports betting involves financial risk.
By prop typebest and worst, nothing hidden
Receiving yardsDeveloping sample
106–86
55.2%+4.8% ROICLV -0.0%
ReceptionsDeveloping sample
104–87
54.5%+7.9% ROICLV +1.1%
Rushing yardsEarly results
53–42
55.8%+5.7% ROICLV +0.1%
Passing yardsEarly results
12–18
40.0%-24.1% ROICLV -0.0%
Small sample sizes. Prop types with under 100 graded predictions haven't shown long-term performance yet; a few results either way swing these numbers a lot.
Closing line value282 with a comparable close
compares the price saved before the game with the market's final price at the same line. Beating the close consistently is one of the best signs a model finds value before the market does, and it shows up long before win rates settle.
Avg CLV
+0.6%
Beat the close
42%
of graded predictions
NFL CLV
+0.6%
282 graded
Breakdownmarket / prop type
| Group | Graded | W–L–P | Win rate | Units | ROI | Avg edge | Avg proj. error | Avg CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Passing yards | 30 | 12–18 | 40.0% | -7.24u | -24.1% | -0.3% | 79.9 | -0.0% |
| Receiving yards | 192 | 106–86 | 55.2% | +9.23u | +4.8% | +0.1% | 23.4 | -0.0% |
| Receptions | 191 | 104–87 | 54.5% | +15.04u | +7.9% | +0.5% | 1.7 | +1.1% |
| Rushing yards | 95 | 53–42 | 55.8% | +5.43u | +5.7% | +0.3% | 17.9 | +0.1% |
Calibration
When the model says 60%, it should win about 60% of the time. Actual below predicted means overconfident; above means underconfident. A bucket needs 50+ results before its gap means much.
| Predicted | Graded | Avg predicted | Actual | Gap | Chart |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 50% | 90 | 44.7% | 52.2% | +7.5% | |
| 50–54% | 324 | 52.7% | 53.1% | +0.4% | |
| 55–59% | 64 | 56.7% | 57.8% | +1.1% | |
| 60–64% | 20 | 62.7% | 75.0% | +12.3% | |
| 65–69% | 9 | 66.5% | 33.3% | -33.1% | |
| 70%+ | 1 | 70.3% | 100.0% | +29.7% |
Bar: actual win rate. Green tick: average predicted probability.
Backtest a selection rule
Replays only predictions saved before their games started, so a rule can't use information that didn't exist at bet time. Uses the sport, market, model and dates above.
Every prediction301–350 of 567
- Jaylin Noel Over 1.5 receptionsWin · 3+172
FanDuelProj 1.538.5%EV +4.6%Value
Cowboys@
Texans · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · v2.0.0 - Kayshon Boutte Under 1.5 receptionsLoss · 3+150
theScore BetProj 238.8%EV -2.9%PassCowboys@Texans · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · v2.0.0 - Xavier Hutchinson Under 2.5 receptionsLoss · 3+105
DraftKingsProj 2.846.8%EV -4.1%PassCowboys@Texans · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · v2.0.0 - Kayshon Boutte Over 24.5 receiving yardsWin · 36-109DraftKingsProj 31.550.9%EV -2.5%PassCowboys@Texans · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · v2.0.0
- George Pickens Under 67.5 receiving yardsLoss · 75-113DraftKingsProj 74.250.9%EV -4.0%PassCowboys@Texans · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · v2.0.0
- Chase Brown Under 19.5 receiving yardsLoss · 71-110theScore BetProj 21.252.4%EV +0.0%Pass
Jaguars@
Bengals · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · v2.0.0 - Joe Burrow Under 8.5 rushing yardsWin · 6-111DraftKingsProj 8.254.7%EV +4.0%LeanJaguars@Bengals · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · v2.0.0
- Samaje Perine Under 12.5 rushing yardsWin · 7-108DraftKingsProj 18.950.8%EV -2.2%PassJaguars@Bengals · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · v2.0.0
- Chris Rodriguez Jr. Over 20.5 rushing yardsWin · 35-111DraftKingsProj 33.554.7%EV +4.0%ValueJaguars@Bengals · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · v2.0.0
- Drew Sample Over 1.5 receptionsVoid+120DraftKingsProj 1.644.3%EV -2.4%PassJaguars@Bengals · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · v2.0.0
- Samaje Perine Under 1.5 receptionsWin · 0-103DraftKingsProj 1.551.3%EV +1.2%LeanJaguars@Bengals · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · v2.0.0
- Bhayshul Tuten Under 1.5 receptionsLoss · 2+121DraftKingsProj 1.148.2%EV +6.5%LeanJaguars@Bengals · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · v2.0.0
- Brian Thomas Jr Over 2.5 receptionsLoss · 2+112FanDuelProj 2.747.4%EV +0.5%PassJaguars@Bengals · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · v2.0.0
- Mike Gesicki Over 2.5 receptionsWin · 3-124DraftKingsProj 2.852.9%EV -4.4%PassJaguars@Bengals · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · v2.0.0
- Chase Brown Over 3.5 receptionsWin · 11+115theScore BetProj 3.747.3%EV +1.8%LeanJaguars@Bengals · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · v2.0.0
- Brenton Strange Under 3.5 receptionsLoss · 7-121DraftKingsProj 3.157.0%EV +4.2%ValueJaguars@Bengals · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · v2.0.0
- Drew Sample Over 6.5 receiving yardsVoid-114FanDuelProj 10.151.0%EV -4.3%PassJaguars@Bengals · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · v2.0.0
- Samaje Perine Under 9.5 receiving yardsWin · 0-112DraftKingsProj 10.352.5%EV -0.6%PassJaguars@Bengals · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · v2.0.0
- Bhayshul Tuten Under 10.5 receiving yardsLoss · 18-109DraftKingsProj 8.154.5%EV +4.5%LeanJaguars@Bengals · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · v2.0.0
- Mike Gesicki Under 28.5 receiving yardsLoss · 40-109DraftKingsProj 34.649.8%EV -4.5%PassJaguars@Bengals · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · v2.0.0
- Brian Thomas Jr Over 29.5 receiving yardsLoss · 17-112DraftKingsProj 37.851.7%EV -2.2%PassJaguars@Bengals · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · v2.0.0
- Brenton Strange Under 33.5 receiving yardsLoss · 95-109DraftKingsProj 33.853.2%EV +2.0%LeanJaguars@Bengals · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · v2.0.0
- Joe Burrow Under 269.5 passing yardsLoss · 428-113DraftKingsProj 243.454.9%EV +3.5%LeanJaguars@Bengals · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · v2.0.0
- Braelon Allen Under 55.5 rushing yardsLoss · 59-114FanDuelProj 22.553.6%EV +0.6%Pass
Jets@
Bears · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · v2.0.0 - Cole Kmet Over 9.5 receiving yardsWin · 13-114FanDuelProj 1550.8%EV -4.7%PassJets@Bears · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · v2.0.0
- D'Andre Swift Over 14.5 receiving yardsWin · 16-114FanDuelProj 2051.2%EV -4.0%PassJets@Bears · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · v2.0.0
- Luther Burden III Under 46.5 receiving yardsLoss · 63-114FanDuelProj 5151.8%EV -2.8%PassJets@Bears · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · v2.0.0
- Geno Smith Under 11.5 rushing yardsWin · 0-112DraftKingsProj 9.454.8%EV +3.7%ValueJets@Bears · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · v2.0.0
- Kyle Monangai Under 38.5 rushing yardsLoss · 146-110DraftKingsProj 48.250.2%EV -4.2%PassJets@Bears · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · v2.0.0
- D'Andre Swift Over 66.5 rushing yardsLoss · 58-110DraftKingsProj 75.251.3%EV -2.1%PassJets@Bears · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · v2.0.0
- Cole Kmet Over 1.5 receptionsWin · 2+182FanDuelProj 1.335.4%EV -0.3%PassJets@Bears · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · v2.0.0
- D'Andre Swift Under 2.5 receptionsWin · 2-165
BetMGMProj 2.261.8%EV -0.8%PassJets@Bears · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · v2.0.0 - Rome Odunze Over 2.5 receptionsWin · 6+105BetMGMProj 2.848.3%EV -0.9%PassJets@Bears · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · v2.0.0
- Colston Loveland Under 3.5 receptionsLoss · 6-129DraftKingsProj 3.157.7%EV +2.5%LeanJets@Bears · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · v2.0.0
- Kalif Raymond Over 3.5 receptionsLoss · 2+115theScore BetProj 3.948.2%EV +3.7%ValueJets@Bears · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · v2.0.0
- Luther Burden III Under 4.5 receptionsWin · 4-131DraftKingsProj 4.255.9%EV -1.4%PassJets@Bears · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · v2.0.0
- Garrett Wilson Under 6.5 receptionsWin · 3-110DraftKingsProj 5.955.2%EV +5.3%ValueJets@Bears · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · v2.0.0
- Colston Loveland Under 31.5 receiving yardsLoss · 57-110theScore BetProj 36.852.9%EV +1.1%LeanJets@Bears · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · v2.0.0
- Kalif Raymond Over 31.5 receiving yardsLoss · 6-114FanDuelProj 4554.6%EV +2.5%LeanJets@Bears · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · v2.0.0
- Garrett Wilson Under 76.5 receiving yardsWin · 27-111DraftKingsProj 67.354.7%EV +4.0%ValueJets@Bears · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · v2.0.0
- Khalil Shakir Under 37.5 receiving yardsLoss · 82-114DraftKingsProj 40.852.4%EV -1.6%Pass
Patriots@
Bills · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · v2.0.0 - Cam Ward Under 9.5 rushing yardsLoss · 27-110theScore BetProj 9.954.3%EV +3.7%Value
Titans@
Ravens · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · v2.0.0 - Derrick Henry Under 96.5 rushing yardsWin · 73-114FanDuelProj 103.450.5%EV -5.2%PassTitans@Ravens · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · v2.0.0
- Elic Ayomanor Over 20.5 receiving yardsWin · 22-114FanDuelProj 28.753.2%EV -0.1%PassTitans@Ravens · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · v2.0.0
- Zay Flowers Over 68.5 receiving yardsWin · 118-114FanDuelProj 78.850.5%EV -5.2%PassTitans@Ravens · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · v2.0.0
- Tony Pollard Under 9.5 receiving yardsWin · 2-114DraftKingsProj 10.454.1%EV +1.6%LeanTitans@Ravens · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · v2.0.0
- Gunnar Helm Under 18.5 receiving yardsWin · 5-110theScore BetProj 20.850.7%EV -3.1%PassTitans@Ravens · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · v2.0.0
- Mark Andrews Under 37.5 receiving yardsWin · 27-112DraftKingsProj 30.854.8%EV +3.7%ValueTitans@Ravens · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · v2.0.0
- Wan'Dale Robinson Over 38.5 receiving yardsLoss · 19-110DraftKingsProj 51.450.7%EV -3.2%PassTitans@Ravens · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · v2.0.0
- Carnell Tate Under 42.5 receiving yardsLoss · 145-111DraftKingsProj 41.953.2%EV +1.2%LeanTitans@Ravens · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · v2.0.0
Past performance is no promise of future results. Model probabilities are estimates, not certainties. Sports betting involves financial risk.