Track record

Every model prediction is saved before kickoff with its price, projection, probability and model version, then graded from official stats. Nothing is edited after the fact. Current model v2.0.0.

Live verified recordEstablished sample

Last graded Oct 5, 5:57 AM

RECORD

275–233

508 graded

54.1%

+22.46

1 unit per prediction

+4.4%

+0.6%

STREAK

30 pending

Rated Value or better only: 56–47 · +5.71uDeveloping sample

Sep 29Cumulative units, 1 unit per predictionOct 5

Every prediction is timestamped and saved before kickoff with its price, projection and model version, then graded from official stats. Nothing is edited or removed after.

500 verified predictions reached. Next milestone: 1,000 graded (492 to go).

Past performance is no promise of future results. Model probabilities are estimates, not certainties. Sports betting involves financial risk.

By prop typebest and worst, nothing hidden

Receiving yardsDeveloping sample

106–86

55.2%+4.8% ROICLV -0.0%

ReceptionsDeveloping sample

104–87

54.5%+7.9% ROICLV +1.1%

Rushing yardsEarly results

53–42

55.8%+5.7% ROICLV +0.1%

Passing yardsEarly results

12–18

40.0%-24.1% ROICLV -0.0%

Small sample sizes. Prop types with under 100 graded predictions haven't shown long-term performance yet; a few results either way swing these numbers a lot.

Closing line value282 with a comparable close

compares the price saved before the game with the market's final price at the same line. Beating the close consistently is one of the best signs a model finds value before the market does, and it shows up long before win rates settle.

Avg CLV

+0.6%

Beat the close

42%

of graded predictions

NFL CLV

+0.6%

282 graded

Breakdownmarket / prop type

Group	Graded	W–L–P	Win rate	Units	ROI	Avg edge	Avg proj. error	Avg CLV
Passing yards	30	12–18	40.0%	-7.24u	-24.1%	-0.3%	79.9	-0.0%
Receiving yards	192	106–86	55.2%	+9.23u	+4.8%	+0.1%	23.4	-0.0%
Receptions	191	104–87	54.5%	+15.04u	+7.9%	+0.5%	1.7	+1.1%
Rushing yards	95	53–42	55.8%	+5.43u	+5.7%	+0.3%	17.9	+0.1%

Calibration

When the model says 60%, it should win about 60% of the time. Actual below predicted means overconfident; above means underconfident. A bucket needs 50+ results before its gap means much.

Predicted	Graded	Avg predicted	Actual	Gap
Under 50%	90	44.7%	52.2%	+7.5%
50–54%	324	52.7%	53.1%	+0.4%
55–59%	64	56.7%	57.8%	+1.1%
60–64%	20	62.7%	75.0%	+12.3%
65–69%	9	66.5%	33.3%	-33.1%
70%+	1	70.3%	100.0%	+29.7%

Bar: actual win rate. Green tick: average predicted probability.

Backtest a selection rule

Replays only predictions saved before their games started, so a rule can't use information that didn't exist at bet time. Uses the sport, market, model and dates above.

Every prediction101–150 of 567

Oronde Gadsden II Under 24.5 receiving yardsLoss · 36
-105 theScore BetProj 28.153.5%EV +4.4%Value
Chargers@Seahawks · saved Oct 1, 4:24 PM · v2.0.0
Emmett Johnson Under 17.5 rushing yardsWin · 0
-114 FanDuelProj 18.550.8%EV -4.6%Pass
Chiefs@Raiders · saved Oct 1, 4:24 PM · v2.0.0
Tre Tucker Under 38.5 receiving yardsLoss · 44
-114 FanDuelProj 44.751.0%EV -4.3%Pass
Chiefs@Raiders · saved Oct 1, 4:24 PM · v2.0.0
Ashton Jeanty Over 58.5 rushing yardsLoss · 58
-111 DraftKingsProj 64.849.9%EV -5.1%Pass
Chiefs@Raiders · saved Oct 1, 4:24 PM · v2.0.0
Emmett Johnson Over 8.5 receiving yardsWin · 10
-114 DraftKingsProj 2053.8%EV +1.0%Lean
Chiefs@Raiders · saved Oct 1, 4:24 PM · v2.0.0
RJ Harvey Under 15.5 rushing yardsLoss · 25
-110 theScore BetProj 22.650.1%EV -4.3%Pass
Broncos@49ers · saved Oct 1, 4:24 PM · v2.0.0
Jadarian Price Under 1.5 receptionsVoid
-108 DraftKingsProj 1.353.1%EV +2.3%Lean
Chargers@Seahawks · saved Oct 1, 6:01 AM · v2.0.0
Oronde Gadsden II Under 2.5 receptionsLoss · 5
-114 FanDuelProj 2.355.6%EV +4.4%Value
Chargers@Seahawks · saved Oct 1, 6:01 AM · v2.0.0
Tre Harris Under 2.5 receptionsLoss · 3
+128 FanDuelProj 2.744.5%EV +1.6%Lean
Chargers@Seahawks · saved Oct 1, 6:01 AM · v2.0.0
Tre Harris Under 33.5 receiving yardsLoss · 60
-110 DraftKingsProj 33.553.2%EV +1.5%Lean
Chargers@Seahawks · saved Oct 1, 6:01 AM · v2.0.0
Mike Washington Jr. Over 16.5 rushing yardsWin · 18
-106 DraftKingsProj 32.853.0%EV +2.9%Lean
Chiefs@Raiders · saved Oct 1, 6:01 AM · v2.0.0
Justin Herbert Under 21.5 rushing yardsLoss · 40
-110 DraftKingsProj 26.450.4%EV -3.8%Pass
Chargers@Seahawks · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · v2.0.0
Omarion Hampton Over 45.5 rushing yardsLoss · 45
-114 FanDuelProj 58.253.3%EV +0.0%Pass
Chargers@Seahawks · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · v2.0.0
AJ Barner Under 31.5 receiving yardsWin · 12
-114 FanDuelProj 31.354.1%EV +1.6%Lean
Chargers@Seahawks · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · v2.0.0
Jaxon Smith-Njigba Over 91.5 receiving yardsLoss · 76
-112 DraftKingsProj 111.153.8%EV +1.9%Lean
Chargers@Seahawks · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · v2.0.0
Kenneth Walker III Over 19.5 receiving yardsLoss · 2
-114 FanDuelProj 28.253.6%EV +0.7%Pass
Chiefs@Raiders · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · v2.0.0
Ashton Jeanty Over 19.5 receiving yardsWin · 68
-114 FanDuelProj 24.650.4%EV -5.3%Pass
Chiefs@Raiders · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · v2.0.0
Kirk Cousins Under 0.5 rushing yardsWin · 0
-125 DraftKingsProj 0.357.2%EV +3.0%Value
Chiefs@Raiders · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · v2.0.0
Patrick Mahomes Over 15.5 rushing yardsLoss · 0
-114 FanDuelProj 2351.5%EV -3.3%Pass
Chiefs@Raiders · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · v2.0.0
Noah Gray Over 1.5 receptionsWin · 2
+166 DraftKingsProj 1.437.9%EV +0.7%Pass
Chiefs@Raiders · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · v2.0.0
Emmett Johnson Over 1.5 receptionsLoss · 1
+165 DraftKingsProj 1.336.3%EV -3.7%Pass
Chiefs@Raiders · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · v2.0.0
Tyquan Thornton Over 1.5 receptionsWin · 5
+130 theScore BetProj 1.643.5%EV +0.1%Pass
Chiefs@Raiders · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · v2.0.0
Jalen Nailor Under 1.5 receptionsVoid
+130 theScore BetProj 1.744.5%EV +2.3%Lean
Chiefs@Raiders · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · v2.0.0
Michael Mayer Over 2.5 receptionsWin · 8
-120 DraftKingsProj 3.355.0%EV +0.8%Pass
Chiefs@Raiders · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · v2.0.0
Kenneth Walker III Over 2.5 receptionsLoss · 1
-135 theScore BetProj 3.157.1%EV -0.5%Pass
Chiefs@Raiders · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · v2.0.0
Xavier Worthy Under 3.5 receptionsLoss · 4
-172 DraftKingsProj 362.3%EV -1.5%Pass
Chiefs@Raiders · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · v2.0.0
Tre Tucker Over 3.5 receptionsWin · 4
+132 DraftKingsProj 3.442.5%EV -1.4%Pass
Chiefs@Raiders · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · v2.0.0
Ashton Jeanty Over 3.5 receptionsWin · 6
+116 FanDuelProj 3.645.4%EV -2.0%Pass
Chiefs@Raiders · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · v2.0.0
Travis Kelce Over 4.5 receptionsLoss · 2
+119 DraftKingsProj 4.545.0%EV -1.4%Pass
Chiefs@Raiders · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · v2.0.0
Rashee Rice Over 4.5 receptionsVoid
-128 DraftKingsProj 5.154.3%EV -3.3%Pass
Chiefs@Raiders · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · v2.0.0
Brock Bowers Under 7.5 receptionsWin · 6
-140 theScore BetProj 6.658.8%EV +0.8%Pass
Chiefs@Raiders · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · v2.0.0
Noah Gray Over 8.5 receiving yardsWin · 17
-107 DraftKingsProj 12.549.8%EV -3.6%Pass
Chiefs@Raiders · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · v2.0.0
Jalen Nailor Under 19.5 receiving yardsVoid
-109 DraftKingsProj 23.753.1%EV +1.8%Lean
Chiefs@Raiders · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · v2.0.0
Michael Mayer Over 21.5 receiving yardsWin · 82
-114 DraftKingsProj 27.951.2%EV -3.8%Pass
Chiefs@Raiders · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · v2.0.0
Xavier Worthy Under 33.5 receiving yardsLoss · 70
-114 FanDuelProj 31.855.0%EV +3.2%Value
Chiefs@Raiders · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · v2.0.0
Travis Kelce Over 47.5 receiving yardsLoss · 15
-110 DraftKingsProj 54.951.2%EV -2.2%Pass
Chiefs@Raiders · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · v2.0.0
Rashee Rice Under 54.5 receiving yardsVoid
-110 DraftKingsProj 6250.2%EV -4.2%Pass
Chiefs@Raiders · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · v2.0.0
Brock Bowers Under 76.5 receiving yardsLoss · 86
-110 DraftKingsProj 68.953.4%EV +1.9%Lean
Chiefs@Raiders · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · v2.0.0
Justin Herbert Over 199.5 passing yardsLoss · 189
-112 DraftKingsProj 211.850.9%EV -3.6%Pass
Chargers@Seahawks · saved Sep 30, 2:58 PM · v2.0.0
Kirk Cousins Under 225.5 passing yardsLoss · 365
-111 DraftKingsProj 197.454.7%EV +4.0%Value
Chiefs@Raiders · saved Sep 30, 2:58 PM · v2.0.0
Jadarian Price Under 39.5 rushing yardsVoid
-110 DraftKingsProj 39.452.3%EV -0.2%Pass
Chargers@Seahawks · saved Sep 30, 4:01 AM · v2.0.0
Emanuel Wilson Under 42.5 rushing yardsLoss · 81
-110 DraftKingsProj 34.554.6%EV +4.2%Lean
Chargers@Seahawks · saved Sep 30, 4:01 AM · v2.0.0
Cooper Kupp Over 2.5 receptionsLoss · 1
+112 DraftKingsProj 2.848.3%EV +2.4%Lean
Chargers@Seahawks · saved Sep 30, 4:01 AM · v2.0.0
Quentin Johnston Under 2.5 receptionsWin · 1
+134 DraftKingsProj 3.140.7%EV -4.8%Pass
Chargers@Seahawks · saved Sep 30, 4:01 AM · v2.0.0
AJ Barner Under 3.5 receptionsWin · 1
-160 FanDuelProj 361.3%EV -0.3%Pass
Chargers@Seahawks · saved Sep 30, 4:01 AM · v2.0.0
Ladd McConkey Under 3.5 receptionsWin · 0
+127 DraftKingsProj 3.745.2%EV +2.6%Lean
Chargers@Seahawks · saved Sep 30, 4:01 AM · v2.0.0
Jaxon Smith-Njigba Over 6.5 receptionsLoss · 5
-135 DraftKingsProj 7.658.1%EV +1.1%Lean
Chargers@Seahawks · saved Sep 30, 4:01 AM · v2.0.0
Quentin Johnston Under 35.5 receiving yardsLoss · 44
-114 DraftKingsProj 40.951.8%EV -2.7%Pass
Chargers@Seahawks · saved Sep 30, 4:01 AM · v2.0.0
Ladd McConkey Under 45.5 receiving yardsWin · 0
-111 DraftKingsProj 47.252.6%EV -0.1%Pass
Chargers@Seahawks · saved Sep 30, 4:01 AM · v2.0.0
Bo Nix Under 224.5 passing yardsWin · 214
-110 DraftKingsProj 220.452.8%EV +0.7%Pass
Broncos@49ers · saved Sep 30, 3:47 AM · v2.0.0

Pick	Odds	Proj	Prob		Rating		Result
Oronde Gadsden II Under 24.5 receiving yards Chargers@Seahawks · 10/4/2026 · saved Oct 1, 4:24 PM · model v2.0.0	-105 theScore Bet	28.1	53.5%	+4.4%	Value high confidence	-135	Loss · 36
Emmett Johnson Under 17.5 rushing yards Chiefs@Raiders · 10/4/2026 · saved Oct 1, 4:24 PM · model v2.0.0	-114 FanDuel	18.5	50.8%	-4.6%	Pass medium confidence	-113	Win · 0
Tre Tucker Under 38.5 receiving yards Chiefs@Raiders · 10/4/2026 · saved Oct 1, 4:24 PM · model v2.0.0	-114 FanDuel	44.7	51.0%	-4.3%	Pass high confidence	-113	Loss · 44
Ashton Jeanty Over 58.5 rushing yards Chiefs@Raiders · 10/4/2026 · saved Oct 1, 4:24 PM · model v2.0.0	-111 DraftKings	64.8	49.9%	-5.1%	Pass high confidence	-114	Loss · 58
Emmett Johnson Over 8.5 receiving yards Chiefs@Raiders · 10/4/2026 · saved Oct 1, 4:24 PM · model v2.0.0	-114 DraftKings	20	53.8%	+1.0%	Lean medium confidence	-114	Win · 10
RJ Harvey Under 15.5 rushing yards Broncos@49ers · 10/4/2026 · saved Oct 1, 4:24 PM · model v2.0.0	-110 theScore Bet	22.6	50.1%	-4.3%	Pass medium confidence	-110	Loss · 25
Jadarian Price Under 1.5 receptions Chargers@Seahawks · 10/4/2026 · saved Oct 1, 6:01 AM · model v2.0.0	-108 DraftKings	1.3	53.1%	+2.3%	Lean medium confidence	-108	Void
Oronde Gadsden II Under 2.5 receptions Chargers@Seahawks · 10/4/2026 · saved Oct 1, 6:01 AM · model v2.0.0	-114 FanDuel	2.3	55.6%	+4.4%	Value high confidence	+112	Loss · 5
Tre Harris Under 2.5 receptions Chargers@Seahawks · 10/4/2026 · saved Oct 1, 6:01 AM · model v2.0.0	+128 FanDuel	2.7	44.5%	+1.6%	Lean high confidence	-160	Loss · 3
Tre Harris Under 33.5 receiving yards Chargers@Seahawks · 10/4/2026 · saved Oct 1, 6:01 AM · model v2.0.0	-110 DraftKings	33.5	53.2%	+1.5%	Lean high confidence	-111	Loss · 60
Mike Washington Jr. Over 16.5 rushing yards Chiefs@Raiders · 10/4/2026 · saved Oct 1, 6:01 AM · model v2.0.0	-106 DraftKings	32.8	53.0%	+2.9%	Lean medium confidence	-116	Win · 18
Justin Herbert Under 21.5 rushing yards Chargers@Seahawks · 10/4/2026 · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · model v2.0.0	-110 DraftKings	26.4	50.4%	-3.8%	Pass high confidence	-111	Loss · 40
Omarion Hampton Over 45.5 rushing yards Chargers@Seahawks · 10/4/2026 · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · model v2.0.0	-114 FanDuel	58.2	53.3%	+0.0%	Pass high confidence	-113	Loss · 45
AJ Barner Under 31.5 receiving yards Chargers@Seahawks · 10/4/2026 · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · model v2.0.0	-114 FanDuel	31.3	54.1%	+1.6%	Lean high confidence	-113	Win · 12
Jaxon Smith-Njigba Over 91.5 receiving yards Chargers@Seahawks · 10/4/2026 · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · model v2.0.0	-112 DraftKings	111.1	53.8%	+1.9%	Lean high confidence	-114	Loss · 76
Kenneth Walker III Over 19.5 receiving yards Chiefs@Raiders · 10/4/2026 · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · model v2.0.0	-114 FanDuel	28.2	53.6%	+0.7%	Pass high confidence	-113	Loss · 2
Ashton Jeanty Over 19.5 receiving yards Chiefs@Raiders · 10/4/2026 · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · model v2.0.0	-114 FanDuel	24.6	50.4%	-5.3%	Pass high confidence	-113	Win · 68
Kirk Cousins Under 0.5 rushing yards Chiefs@Raiders · 10/4/2026 · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · model v2.0.0	-125 DraftKings	0.3	57.2%	+3.0%	Value high confidence	-117	Win · 0
Patrick Mahomes Over 15.5 rushing yards Chiefs@Raiders · 10/4/2026 · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · model v2.0.0	-114 FanDuel	23	51.5%	-3.3%	Pass high confidence	-113	Loss · 0
Noah Gray Over 1.5 receptions Chiefs@Raiders · 10/4/2026 · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · model v2.0.0	+166 DraftKings	1.4	37.9%	+0.7%	Pass high confidence	+152	Win · 2
Emmett Johnson Over 1.5 receptions Chiefs@Raiders · 10/4/2026 · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · model v2.0.0	+165 DraftKings	1.3	36.3%	-3.7%	Pass medium confidence	+160	Loss · 1
Tyquan Thornton Over 1.5 receptions Chiefs@Raiders · 10/4/2026 · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · model v2.0.0	+130 theScore Bet	1.6	43.5%	+0.1%	Pass high confidence	-110	Win · 5
Jalen Nailor Under 1.5 receptions Chiefs@Raiders · 10/4/2026 · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · model v2.0.0	+130 theScore Bet	1.7	44.5%	+2.3%	Lean high confidence	+130	Void
Michael Mayer Over 2.5 receptions Chiefs@Raiders · 10/4/2026 · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · model v2.0.0	-120 DraftKings	3.3	55.0%	+0.8%	Pass high confidence	-127	Win · 8
Kenneth Walker III Over 2.5 receptions Chiefs@Raiders · 10/4/2026 · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · model v2.0.0	-135 theScore Bet	3.1	57.1%	-0.5%	Pass high confidence	+130	Loss · 1
Xavier Worthy Under 3.5 receptions Chiefs@Raiders · 10/4/2026 · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · model v2.0.0	-172 DraftKings	3	62.3%	-1.5%	Pass high confidence	-169	Loss · 4
Tre Tucker Over 3.5 receptions Chiefs@Raiders · 10/4/2026 · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · model v2.0.0	+132 DraftKings	3.4	42.5%	-1.4%	Pass high confidence	+127	Win · 4
Ashton Jeanty Over 3.5 receptions Chiefs@Raiders · 10/4/2026 · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · model v2.0.0	+116 FanDuel	3.6	45.4%	-2.0%	Pass high confidence	+120	Win · 6
Travis Kelce Over 4.5 receptions Chiefs@Raiders · 10/4/2026 · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · model v2.0.0	+119 DraftKings	4.5	45.0%	-1.4%	Pass high confidence	+104	Loss · 2
Rashee Rice Over 4.5 receptions Chiefs@Raiders · 10/4/2026 · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · model v2.0.0	-128 DraftKings	5.1	54.3%	-3.3%	Pass high confidence	-136	Void
Brock Bowers Under 7.5 receptions Chiefs@Raiders · 10/4/2026 · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · model v2.0.0	-140 theScore Bet	6.6	58.8%	+0.8%	Pass medium confidence	+100	Win · 6
Noah Gray Over 8.5 receiving yards Chiefs@Raiders · 10/4/2026 · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · model v2.0.0	-107 DraftKings	12.5	49.8%	-3.6%	Pass high confidence	-107	Win · 17
Jalen Nailor Under 19.5 receiving yards Chiefs@Raiders · 10/4/2026 · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · model v2.0.0	-109 DraftKings	23.7	53.1%	+1.8%	Lean high confidence	-113	Void
Michael Mayer Over 21.5 receiving yards Chiefs@Raiders · 10/4/2026 · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · model v2.0.0	-114 DraftKings	27.9	51.2%	-3.8%	Pass high confidence	-109	Win · 82
Xavier Worthy Under 33.5 receiving yards Chiefs@Raiders · 10/4/2026 · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · model v2.0.0	-114 FanDuel	31.8	55.0%	+3.2%	Value high confidence	-113	Loss · 70
Travis Kelce Over 47.5 receiving yards Chiefs@Raiders · 10/4/2026 · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · model v2.0.0	-110 DraftKings	54.9	51.2%	-2.2%	Pass high confidence	-110	Loss · 15
Rashee Rice Under 54.5 receiving yards Chiefs@Raiders · 10/4/2026 · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · model v2.0.0	-110 DraftKings	62	50.2%	-4.2%	Pass high confidence	-114	Void
Brock Bowers Under 76.5 receiving yards Chiefs@Raiders · 10/4/2026 · saved Oct 1, 3:53 AM · model v2.0.0	-110 DraftKings	68.9	53.4%	+1.9%	Lean medium confidence	-113	Loss · 86
Justin Herbert Over 199.5 passing yards Chargers@Seahawks · 10/4/2026 · saved Sep 30, 2:58 PM · model v2.0.0	-112 DraftKings	211.8	50.9%	-3.6%	Pass high confidence	-111	Loss · 189
Kirk Cousins Under 225.5 passing yards Chiefs@Raiders · 10/4/2026 · saved Sep 30, 2:58 PM · model v2.0.0	-111 DraftKings	197.4	54.7%	+4.0%	Value high confidence	-113	Loss · 365
Jadarian Price Under 39.5 rushing yards Chargers@Seahawks · 10/4/2026 · saved Sep 30, 4:01 AM · model v2.0.0	-110 DraftKings	39.4	52.3%	-0.2%	Pass medium confidence	-114	Void
Emanuel Wilson Under 42.5 rushing yards Chargers@Seahawks · 10/4/2026 · saved Sep 30, 4:01 AM · model v2.0.0	-110 DraftKings	34.5	54.6%	+4.2%	Lean high confidence	-114	Loss · 81
Cooper Kupp Over 2.5 receptions Chargers@Seahawks · 10/4/2026 · saved Sep 30, 4:01 AM · model v2.0.0	+112 DraftKings	2.8	48.3%	+2.4%	Lean high confidence	+118	Loss · 1
Quentin Johnston Under 2.5 receptions Chargers@Seahawks · 10/4/2026 · saved Sep 30, 4:01 AM · model v2.0.0	+134 DraftKings	3.1	40.7%	-4.8%	Pass high confidence	-162	Win · 1
AJ Barner Under 3.5 receptions Chargers@Seahawks · 10/4/2026 · saved Sep 30, 4:01 AM · model v2.0.0	-160 FanDuel	3	61.3%	-0.3%	Pass high confidence	-166	Win · 1
Ladd McConkey Under 3.5 receptions Chargers@Seahawks · 10/4/2026 · saved Sep 30, 4:01 AM · model v2.0.0	+127 DraftKings	3.7	45.2%	+2.6%	Lean high confidence	-156	Win · 0
Jaxon Smith-Njigba Over 6.5 receptions Chargers@Seahawks · 10/4/2026 · saved Sep 30, 4:01 AM · model v2.0.0	-135 DraftKings	7.6	58.1%	+1.1%	Lean high confidence	-139	Loss · 5
Quentin Johnston Under 35.5 receiving yards Chargers@Seahawks · 10/4/2026 · saved Sep 30, 4:01 AM · model v2.0.0	-114 DraftKings	40.9	51.8%	-2.7%	Pass high confidence	-114	Loss · 44
Ladd McConkey Under 45.5 receiving yards Chargers@Seahawks · 10/4/2026 · saved Sep 30, 4:01 AM · model v2.0.0	-111 DraftKings	47.2	52.6%	-0.1%	Pass high confidence	-113	Win · 0
Bo Nix Under 224.5 passing yards Broncos@49ers · 10/4/2026 · saved Sep 30, 3:47 AM · model v2.0.0	-110 DraftKings	220.4	52.8%	+0.7%	Pass high confidence	-113	Win · 214

Past performance is no promise of future results. Model probabilities are estimates, not certainties. Sports betting involves financial risk.